{"id":1312,"date":"2023-08-29T14:12:51","date_gmt":"2023-08-29T12:12:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/uncategorized\/zkusenosti-s-kontrafaktualni-dopadovou-evaluaci-v-ceske-republice\/"},"modified":"2023-09-15T15:39:33","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T13:39:33","slug":"experience-with-counterfactual-impact-evaluation-in-the-czech-republic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/articles\/experience-with-counterfactual-impact-evaluation-in-the-czech-republic\/","title":{"rendered":"Experience with Counterfactual Impact Evaluation in the Czech Republic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Experience with Counterfactual Impact Evaluation in&nbsp;the&nbsp;Czech Republic<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abstrakt<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S\u00edl\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1jem o pozn\u00e1n\u00ed toho, jak\u00e9 dopady m\u00e1 realizace politiky soudr\u017enosti, vede k uplat\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed rigor\u00f3zn\u00edch evalua\u010dn\u00edch metod. Zku\u0161enost\u00ed s uplatn\u011bn\u00edm kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00edch dopadov\u00fdch evaluac\u00ed v politice soudr\u017enosti nen\u00ed mnoho. Proto si tato studie klade za c\u00edl sd\u00edlet zku\u0161enosti s procesem realizace kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice. Zejm\u00e9na jde o&nbsp;nejproblemati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti tohoto typu evaluace a to konkr\u00e9tn\u011b sb\u011bru dat a&nbsp;jejich zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed a tak\u00e9 \u00faskal\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch metod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro tyto \u00fa\u010dely je vyu\u017eita kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e1 evaluace \u201ePilotn\u00ed counterfactual impact evaluation OP LZZ, oblast podpory 1.1\u201c, kde&nbsp;ji\u017e&nbsp;tento typ evaluace prob\u00edh\u00e1. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b jde o vyhodnocen\u00ed dopad\u016f podpor vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve firm\u00e1ch financovan\u00fdch z Evropsk\u00e9ho soci\u00e1ln\u00edho fondu (Opera\u010dn\u00ed program Lidsk\u00e9 zdroje a zam\u011bstnanost).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zku\u0161enosti a v\u00fdsledky t\u00e9to studie je pak mo\u017en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edt p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b budouc\u00edch kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00edch dopadov\u00fdch evaluac\u00ed a to nejen u podpor Evropsk\u00e9ho soci\u00e1ln\u00edho fondu, ale i Evropsk\u00e9ho fondu region\u00e1ln\u00edho rozvoje v&nbsp;obdob\u00ed 2014 \u2013 2020. Samotn\u00e1 realizace kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00edch dopadov\u00fdch evaluac\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed efektivity intervenc\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch fond\u016f prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm c\u00edlen\u00ed v\u00fdzev k p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed o podporu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The growing interest in studying impacts of implementation of the EU Cohesion Policy resulted in application of rigorous evaluation methods. This study aims at sharing experience with the process of implementation of a counterfactual impact evaluation in the Czech Republic as there is not much experience with the application of such evaluations in the EU Cohesion policy. In particular, the paper concentrates on the most problematic parts of this type of evaluation that are mainly data collection and data processing and pitfalls of the used methods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For this purpose the paper uses counterfactual Impact evaluation &#8220;Pilot counterfactual impact evaluation OP HRE Area 1.1&#8221; as a case to show experience. Specifically, the evaluation of the impacts of the European Social Fund trainings in companies as a case study is employed as a case study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Experience and results of this study can be then used in the preparation of&nbsp;future impact evaluations not only for the European Social Fund, but&nbsp;also for the European Regional Development Fund in 2014\u20132020. The&nbsp;implementation of counterfactual impact evaluations may result in&nbsp;increased effectiveness of the Structural Funds interventions through&nbsp;targeted calls for proposals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 slova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kontrafaktu\u00e1l, dopadov\u00e1 evaluace, regresn\u00ed nespojitost, instrument\u00e1ln\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e9, propensity score matching<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key words<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Counterfactual, impact evaluation, regression discontinuity design, instrumental variables, propensity score matching<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; \u00davod<\/strong><br>V posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech se st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji hovo\u0159\u00ed o kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00edch dopadov\u00fdch evaluac\u00edch intervenc\u00ed Struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch fond\u016f a Fondu soudr\u017enosti. V\u00fdvoj do\u0161el a\u017e k bodu, kdy jsou evaluace dopad\u016f p\u0159\u00edmo zmi\u0148ov\u00e1ny v n\u00e1vrhu legislativy politiky soudr\u017enosti na obdob\u00ed 2014 \u2013 2020, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b v \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch 47 a 49 (viz Evropsk\u00e1 komise 2012). Tud\u00ed\u017e se d\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1vat po\u017eadavek ze strany Evropsk\u00e9 komise, aby byly zpracov\u00e1ny i dal\u0161\u00ed kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace a to i v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">C\u00edlem tohoto textu je p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed procesu realizace kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace[1] evalua\u010dn\u00ed komunit\u011b, nebo\u0165 pou\u017eit\u00ed t\u011bchto metod nen\u00ed zat\u00edm zcela b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 (Kv\u00e1\u010da, Potluka, 2011 \u010di Mouqu\u00e9, 2011). Znalost zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00edch dopadov\u00fdch evaluac\u00ed je st\u00e1le n\u00edzk\u00e1, by\u0165 se za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed objevovat prvn\u00ed studie tohoto druhu. Shrnut\u00ed zku\u0161enost\u00ed a v\u00fdsledk\u016f ji\u017e realizovan\u00fdch studi\u00ed v dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch Evropsk\u00e9 unie uv\u00e1d\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 studii Mouqu\u00e9 (2012).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Obvykl\u00e1 situace je takov\u00e1, \u017ee experti se znalost\u00ed ekonometrick\u00fdch metod neznaj\u00ed problematiku politiky soudr\u017enosti a experti se znalost\u00ed t\u00e9to politiky se neorientuj\u00ed v ekonometrick\u00fdch metod\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V \u010cesk\u00e9 republice byly metody kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace pou\u017eity nap\u0159\u00edklad ve studii o dopadech aktivn\u00ed politiky zam\u011bstnanosti na zam\u011bstnanost (Hora a Sirov\u00e1tka 2012), ale hlavn\u011b jde o studii o dopadech podpor vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed financovan\u00e9ho z Evropsk\u00e9ho soci\u00e1ln\u00edho fondu na zam\u011bstnanost, tr\u017eby a zisk firem (Potluka et al. 2013a \u010di Potluka et al 2013b). Druh\u00e1 jmenovan\u00e1 evaluace poslou\u017eila jako podklad pro p\u0159\u00edpravu t\u00e9to studie. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b bude vyu\u017eit p\u0159\u00edklad dopad\u016f podpor Evropsk\u00e9ho soci\u00e1ln\u00edho fondu \u2013 Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu Lidsk\u00e9 zdroje a zam\u011bstnanost (ESF \u2013 OP LZZ) na zam\u011bstnanost ve firm\u00e1ch. V\u00fdb\u011br t\u00e9matu zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho na zam\u011bstnanost \u010din\u00edme i s ohledem na to, \u017ee mezi obvykl\u00e9 c\u00edle hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky pat\u0159\u00ed boj s nezam\u011bstnanost\u00ed a tud\u00ed\u017e pro \u010dten\u00e1\u0159e budou souvislosti sn\u00e1ze p\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed text je \u010dlen\u011bn tak, aby pokr\u00fdval hlavn\u00ed prvky zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b tedy n\u00e1sleduje kapitola v\u011bnovan\u00e1 metodologii, n\u00e1sledovan\u00e1 kapitolou o datech. Z\u00e1v\u011br pak shrnuje hlavn\u00ed my\u0161lenky t\u00e9to studie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Pou\u017eit\u00e9 metody<\/strong><br><strong>2.1.&nbsp;&nbsp; Mo\u017en\u00e1 \u00faskal\u00ed metod kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace<\/strong><br>S ekonometrick\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edstupy hodnocen\u00ed dopad\u016f ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch politik pracuj\u00ed v\u011bdci a evalu\u00e1to\u0159i ji\u017e n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek let. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b jde o pou\u017eit\u00ed zejm\u00e9na v&nbsp;USA, zat\u00edmco v Evrop\u011b pou\u017eit\u00ed tak \u010dast\u00e9 nen\u00ed. Ve Struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch fondech se o hodnocen\u00ed dopad\u016f mluv\u00ed teprve n\u011bkolik let.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dopadu intervence by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 pomoc\u00ed srovn\u00e1n\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 situace, kdy byla firma podpo\u0159ena, se situac\u00ed, kdy podpo\u0159ena nebyla. V realit\u011b v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017eeme z\u00edskat informaci pouze o jednom z t\u011bchto stav\u016f a tud\u00ed\u017e je takov\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed neprovediteln\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z\u00e1kladn\u00edm principem kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00edch metod je tedy nahrazen\u00ed situace, kter\u00e1 nenastala, situac\u00ed, kter\u00e1 je j\u00ed velice podobn\u00e1. Ve sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b jde o&nbsp;vyu\u017eit\u00ed velk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f jednak ve zkouman\u00e9 skupin\u011b (podpo\u0159en\u00e9 firmy) a kontroln\u00ed skupin\u011b (nepodpo\u0159en\u00e9 firmy). V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se pr\u016fm\u011bry za ob\u011b skupiny limitn\u011b bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k idealizovan\u00e9mu stavu, kdy&nbsp;m\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011br po\u010dtu zam\u011bstnanc\u016f ve skupin\u011b firem s podporou n\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, k jak\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b do\u0161lo v pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 podpo\u0159en\u00e9 firm\u011b. Obdobn\u011b pak pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd po\u010det zam\u011bstnanc\u016f ve skupin\u011b nepodpo\u0159en\u00fdch firem ukazuje, k jak\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b do\u0161lo v pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 nepodpo\u0159en\u00e9 firm\u011b. Z pohledu statistiky jde o z\u00e1kon velk\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel, kdy se zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee po\u010det zam\u011bstnanc\u016f v n\u00e1hodn\u011b vybran\u00e9 firm\u011b se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011bru za&nbsp;celou skupinu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pokud nejsou zkouman\u00e9 firmy podobn\u00e9, co se t\u00fd\u010de jejich pozorovan\u00fdch a&nbsp;nepozorovan\u00fdch vlastnost\u00ed, pak pouh\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br\u016f je zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k hodnocen\u00ed dopadu. Takov\u00fd odhad dopadu je vych\u00fdlen\u00fd,<br>nebo\u0165&nbsp;jde o kombinaci hned t\u0159\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch typ\u016f efekt\u016f:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Jednak jde o skute\u010dn\u00fd hledan\u00fd dopad na zam\u011bstnanost;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>D\u00e1le jde o vych\u00fdlen\u00ed kv\u016fli firm\u00e1m s podporou, kter\u00e9 by m\u011bly jinou zam\u011bstnanost oproti firm\u00e1m v kontroln\u00ed skupin\u011b (nepodpo\u0159en\u00e9 firmy), i kdyby \u017e\u00e1dnou podporu nedostaly. V realistick\u00e9 situaci, kdy p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee na podporu dos\u00e1hnou sp\u00ed\u0161e firmy s lep\u0161\u00edm managementem, tento efekt nadhodnocuje v\u00fdsledn\u00fd dopad;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Posledn\u00edm efektem je situace nepodpo\u0159en\u00fdch firem, kter\u00e9 mohou b\u00fdt systematicky odli\u0161n\u00e9 od podpo\u0159en\u00fdch firem.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Podobnost obou skupin je mo\u017en\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout t\u00edm, \u017ee podpo\u0159en\u00e9 firmy jsou vyb\u00edr\u00e1ny n\u00e1hodn\u011b[2].&nbsp; Nicm\u00e9n\u011b toto nen\u00ed u hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky v EU nejen zvykem, ale randomizace nen\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na v\u016fbec. Tud\u00ed\u017e v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1no tzv. kvazi-experiment\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2.2.&nbsp;&nbsp; Vlastn\u00ed aplikace metod<\/strong><br>V t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti jde o obecn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vysv\u011btlen\u00ed, jak byla kter\u00e1 statistick\u00e1 metoda pou\u017eita pro kter\u00fd zkouman\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad. Snahou je p\u0159edej\u00edt nedorozum\u011bn\u00edm p\u0159i nevhodn\u00e9m pou\u017eit\u00ed metod kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace. Jde zejm\u00e9na o upozorn\u011bn\u00ed na \u00faskal\u00ed spojen\u00e1 s pou\u017eit\u00edm metod a p\u0159edejit\u00ed jejich p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9mu kontraproduktivn\u00edmu pou\u017eit\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Samotn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky vypo\u010dten\u00fdch dopad\u016f zde neuv\u00e1d\u00edme, ale je mo\u017en\u00e9 nal\u00e9zt v Potluka et al. (2013).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Intuitivn\u00ed popis jednotliv\u00fdch metod je bu\u010f v dokumentu Evalsed (Evropsk\u00e1 komise 2008), nebo v Gertler et al (2011).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Regresn\u00ed nespojitost<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tato metoda m\u00e1 pom\u011brn\u011b vysokou intern\u00ed validitu kolem hranice d\u011bl\u00edc\u00ed podpo\u0159en\u00e9 a nepodpo\u0159en\u00e9 firmy. Se vzd\u00e1lenost\u00ed od t\u00e9to hranice v\u0161ak tato validita kles\u00e1. Tato metoda m\u00e1 tud\u00ed\u017e malou extern\u00ed validitu a zobec\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159i realizaci kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace v OP LZZ byla vyu\u017eita hranice 65 bod\u016f v hodnocen\u00ed projektov\u00fdch \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed firem[3]. Pokud \u017e\u00e1dost od hodnotitele obdr\u017eela m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 65 bod\u016f, byla zam\u00edtnuta. Po\u010det bod\u016f \u017e\u00e1dosti vstupuj\u00edc\u00ed do anal\u00fdz je spo\u010dten jako pr\u016fm\u011br dvou platn\u00fdch hodnocen\u00ed[4]. Intuitivn\u00ed vysv\u011btlen\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee firmy, nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed se t\u011bsn\u011b pod hranic\u00ed a firmy t\u011bsn\u011b nad hranic\u00ed 65 bod\u016f jsou si podobn\u00e9 a je tedy validn\u00ed prov\u00e9st jejich srovn\u00e1n\u00ed. To vysv\u011btluje tak\u00e9, pro\u010d je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 generalizovat v\u00fdsledky i pro firmy, kter\u00e9 od t\u00e9to hranice le\u017e\u00ed d\u00e1le.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm p\u0159edpokladem je to, aby se v okol\u00ed t\u00e9to hranice skokov\u011b nem\u011bnila i jin\u00e1 prom\u011bnn\u00e1 ne\u017e je mo\u017enost z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed podpory. Pokud by tomu tak&nbsp;bylo, pak by bylo nemo\u017en\u00e9 odli\u0161it, zda zm\u011bna zkouman\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 (zam\u011bstnanosti) byla zp\u016fsobena podporou nebo pr\u00e1v\u011b touto jinou prom\u011bnnou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro jin\u00e9 typy kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00edch dopadov\u00fdch evaluac\u00ed je mo\u017en\u00e9 jako hranici vyu\u017e\u00edt nap\u0159\u00edklad velikost firem, kter\u00e9 jsou je\u0161t\u011b zp\u016fsobil\u00e9 pro podporu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad ve st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm programovac\u00edm obdob\u00ed v Opera\u010dn\u00edm programu Podnik\u00e1n\u00ed a inovace ve v\u00fdzv\u011b Inovace \u2013 Inovativn\u00ed projekty byla ve v\u00fdzv\u011b \u010d. I omezena mo\u017enost pod\u00e1n\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed o podporu na mal\u00e9 a st\u0159edn\u00ed podniky. Tud\u00ed\u017e po\u010det zam\u011bstnanc\u016f 250 je hranic\u00ed, kterou je mo\u017en\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edt jako&nbsp;d\u011bl\u00edc\u00ed hranici pro metodu regresn\u00ed diskontinuity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm testoval spln\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad\u016f t\u00e9to metody. Prim\u00e1rn\u011b jde o&nbsp;to, zda se v okol\u00ed hranice 65 bod\u016f (krom\u011b pravd\u011bpodobnosti z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed podpory) skokov\u011b nem\u011bn\u00ed jin\u00e1 exogenn\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e1. Tento p\u0159edpoklad evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm testoval na velikosti firem, pr\u00e1vn\u00edch form\u00e1ch, OKE\u010c a&nbsp;u&nbsp;ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 podpory (z dat \u010cS\u00da zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed i podpory mimo OP LZZ). Pokud firmy pod hranic\u00ed 65 bod\u016f z\u00edskaj\u00ed jinou podporu z jin\u00fdch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, pak to m\u016f\u017ee znehodnotit aplikovatelnost metody regresn\u00ed diskontinuity. Evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm proto statisticky testoval, zda se tyto dv\u011b skupiny firem v tomto sm\u011bru li\u0161\u00ed. V\u00fdsledky ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edt metodu regresn\u00ed nespojitosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pot\u00e9 ji\u017e evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm aplikoval parametrickou i neparametrickou regresi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Instrument\u00e1ln\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e9<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tato metoda vy\u017eaduje p\u0159\u00edtomnost instrument\u00e1ln\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e9, co\u017e je prom\u011bnn\u00e1, kter\u00e1 mus\u00ed spl\u0148ovat dv\u011b vlastnosti:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; mus\u00ed ovliv\u0148ovat pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee dan\u00e1 firma z\u00edsk\u00e1 podporu,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; nesm\u00ed souviset se zkoumanou prom\u011bnnou jinak, ne\u017e p\u0159es z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed podpory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b z uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9ho evalua\u010dn\u00edho projektu byla jako instrument pou\u017eita prom\u011bnn\u00e1 vyjad\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed to, jak byl kter\u00fd hodnotitel p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fd, nebo naopak m\u00edrn\u00fd v\u016f\u010di projektov\u00fdm \u017e\u00e1dostem. Osoby hodnotitel\u016f v\u0161ak nesouvis\u00ed s&nbsp;v\u00fdsledkem podpory na zam\u011bstnanost, co\u017e spl\u0148uje podm\u00ednku 2 v\u00fd\u0161e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pokud by se hodnotitel\u00e9 mezi sebou neli\u0161ili, pak by tato metoda nebyla pou\u017eiteln\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm zvolil zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed metodou dvoustup\u0148ov\u00fdch nejmen\u0161\u00edch \u010dtverc\u016f. Ve sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b jde o dv\u011b rovnice, z nich\u017e jedna vysv\u011btluje pravd\u011bpodobnost z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed podpory na z\u00e1klad\u011b charakteristik hodnotitel\u016f a&nbsp;p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b t\u00e9\u017e charakteristik firem. Druh\u00e1 rovnice vysv\u011btluje zkoumanou prom\u011bnnou \u2013 zam\u011bstnanost &#8211; pomoc\u00ed toho, zda firma z\u00edskala podporu a&nbsp;tak\u00e9 pomoc\u00ed ostatn\u00edch charakteristik firmy (OKE\u010c, kraj).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jako instrument lze vyu\u017e\u00edt i jin\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9. Nap\u0159\u00edklad Criscuolo et&nbsp;al.&nbsp;(2009) pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed rozd\u00edly ve zp\u016fsobilosti k podpo\u0159e mezi podporovan\u00fdmi regiony p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 politiky a podpor firm\u00e1m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Rozd\u00edly v rozd\u00edlech (Difference \u2013 in difference) a p\u00e1rov\u00e1n\u00ed (propensity score matching)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159i aplikaci t\u011bchto metod musel evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm nejprve dos\u00e1hnout toho, aby byly zkouman\u00e1 i kontroln\u00ed skupina shodn\u00e9. Proto bylo nejprve aplikov\u00e1no p\u00e1rov\u00e1n\u00ed pomoc\u00ed propensity sk\u00f3re. Ve sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b jde o to, \u017ee&nbsp;se&nbsp;na z\u00e1klad\u011b charakteristik firem spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 pomoc\u00ed probit regrese pravd\u011bpodobnost toho, \u017ee firma obdr\u017e\u00ed podporu (pou\u017eit\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 pro v\u00fdpo\u010det jsou uvedeny d\u00e1le v kapitole v\u011bnovan\u00e9 dat\u016fm).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00fdb\u011br pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed s podobnou hodnotou propensity sk\u00f3re lze u\u010dinit v\u00edce zp\u016fsoby. Dva nej\u010dast\u011bji pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 jsou:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>metoda nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edho souseda je zalo\u017eena na tom, \u017ee se ka\u017ed\u00e1 podpo\u0159en\u00e1 firma srovn\u00e1 s ne\u017eadatelem, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed hodnotu propensity sk\u00f3re. V\u00fdsledek odhadu je pak pr\u016fm\u011br t\u011bchto srovn\u00e1n\u00ed za&nbsp;v\u0161echny podpo\u0159en\u00e9 firmy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kernelov\u00e1 metoda, kdy se ka\u017ed\u00e1 podpo\u0159en\u00e1 firma srovn\u00e1v\u00e1 se&nbsp;v\u0161emi ne\u017eadateli, nicm\u00e9n\u011b r\u016fzn\u00fdm ne\u017eadatel\u016fm jsou p\u0159ips\u00e1ny r\u016fzn\u00e9 v\u00e1hy a to v z\u00e1vislosti na rozd\u00edlu propensity sk\u00f3re (\u010d\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed rozd\u00edl, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1ha).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pot\u00e9 ji\u017e byla aplikov\u00e1na op\u011bt parametrick\u00e1 a neparametrick\u00e1 regrese pro&nbsp;u\u010den\u00ed odhad\u016f dopad\u016f podpor ESF na zam\u011bstnanost ve firm\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Data<\/strong><br><strong>3.1.&nbsp;&nbsp; V\u00fdb\u011br dat<\/strong><br>V\u00fdb\u011br prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm pou\u017e\u00edval, vych\u00e1zel jednak ze&nbsp;samotn\u00e9ho zad\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to evaluace, ale tak\u00e9 z p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinn\u00fdch kauz\u00e1ln\u00edch vazeb zkouman\u00e9ho probl\u00e9mu. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b theory-based p\u0159\u00edstupu (White 2009) lze vytipovat, kter\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 mohou hr\u00e1t v\u00fdznamnou roli p\u0159i ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed zam\u011bstnanosti ve firm\u00e1ch. Takov\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 je pak vhodn\u00e9 do testovan\u00fdch model\u016f za\u0159adit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mno\u017estv\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00fdch pou\u017eit\u00fdch v anal\u00fdze lze dokumentovat na p\u0159\u00edkladu metody p\u00e1rov\u00e1n\u00ed (propensity score matching). U t\u00e9to metody je nap\u0159\u00edklad zapot\u0159eb\u00ed hned n\u011bkolika pozorovateln\u00fdch charakteristik firem,<br>podle&nbsp;kter\u00fdch se k sob\u011b p\u00e1ruje k podpo\u0159en\u00e9 firm\u011b jej\u00ed \u201edvoj\u010de\u201c ze souboru nepodpo\u0159en\u00fdch firem. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b t\u00e9to evaluace jsme vyu\u017eili n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch prom\u011bnn\u00fdch:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Velikost firmy &#8211; formou po\u010dtu zam\u011bstnanc\u016f \u2013 p\u0159epo\u010dten\u00e9 \u00favazky;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pr\u00e1vn\u00ed forma &#8211; formou dummy (nab\u00fdv\u00e1 hodnot 0\/1) prom\u011bnn\u00e9 za&nbsp;jednotliv\u00e9 typy, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v souboru byly v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b pouze akciov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti a spole\u010dnosti s ru\u010den\u00edm omezen\u00fdm;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>OKE\u010c (formou dummy prom\u011bnn\u00e9 za jednotliv\u00e9 OKE\u010c);<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Region p\u016fsobnosti (formou dummy prom\u011bnn\u00e9 za jednotliv\u00e9 regiony na \u00farovni kraj\u016f \u2013 pro ka\u017ed\u00fd kraj jde o jednu prom\u011bnnou);<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interakce velikosti firmy s v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdmi charakteristikami (n\u00e1sobek velikosti firmy s v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdmi charakteristikami);<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Zm\u011bna dlouhodob\u00e9ho majetku firmy (vypo\u010dteno jako procentn\u00ed rozd\u00edl mezi lety 2010 a 2008).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Podpora z jin\u00fdch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f (ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 podpora dle dat \u010cS\u00da a&nbsp;podpora OP LZZ, \u0161lo zde tedy o sou\u010det dvou prom\u011bnn\u00fdch)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nap\u0159\u00edklad dlouhodob\u00fd majetek firmy je v\u00fdznamn\u00fd v t\u00e9to evaluaci i z jin\u00e9ho pohledu. Pokud do\u0161lo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu dlouhodob\u00e9ho majetku a&nbsp;z\u00e1rove\u0148 i k n\u00e1r\u016fstu zam\u011bstnanosti, lze usuzovat, \u017ee firma investovala do&nbsp;nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed, \u010di zprovoznila nov\u00fd v\u00fdrobn\u00ed z\u00e1vod. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je \u0161kolen\u00ed financovan\u00e9 z ESF dopl\u0148kem samotn\u00e9 investice. P\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou n\u00e1r\u016fstu zam\u011bstnanosti je ona investice, nikoli to, \u017ee se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed znalosti a&nbsp;dovednosti pracovn\u00edk\u016f firmy d\u00edky podpo\u0159e z ESF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3.2.&nbsp;&nbsp; Dostupnost a pou\u017eitelnost dat<\/strong><br>Kvalita a mno\u017estv\u00ed dat jsou kritick\u00fdmi faktory pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace. Vlastn\u00ed sb\u011br dat o po\u010dtu zam\u011bstnanc\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch charakteristik\u00e1ch firem nebyl p\u0159i realizaci t\u00e9to evaluace mysliteln\u00fd. \u0160lo by o&nbsp;\u010dasov\u011b a finan\u010dn\u011b p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 n\u00e1ro\u010dnou aktivitu, kter\u00e1 by \u0161la v\u00fdrazn\u011b za r\u00e1mec zpracov\u00e1van\u00e9 studie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed evaluace proto byla vyu\u017eita data, kter\u00e1 ji\u017e byla sebr\u00e1na za&nbsp;jin\u00fdm \u00fa\u010delem. Tento p\u0159\u00edstup umo\u017enil pou\u017e\u00edt data, kter\u00e1 nebyla zkreslena t\u00edm, \u017ee by respondenti tu\u0161ili pou\u017eit\u00ed dat p\u0159i evaluaci a nadhodnocovali by n\u011bkter\u00e9 \u00fadaje[5]. Na druhou stranu se objevovaly r\u016fzn\u00e9 pr\u00e1vn\u00ed a technick\u00e9 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky, kter\u00e9 pr\u00e1ci s daty komplikovaly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159i \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace vyu\u017eil evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm data z&nbsp;n\u011bkolika r\u016fzn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b \u0161lo o data z:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Datab\u00e1ze Albertina;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Datab\u00e1ze Magnus;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>monitorovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu Lidsk\u00e9 zdroje a&nbsp;zam\u011bstnanost (OP LZZ) Monit 7+;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Datab\u00e1ze Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed evidence dotac\u00ed ze st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu (CEDR III);<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>dotazn\u00edkov\u00fdch \u0161et\u0159en\u00ed mezi firmami.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;Takto \u0161irok\u00e1 paleta datov\u00fdch zdroj\u016f s sebou p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ela \u0159adu v\u00fdhod, ale&nbsp;i&nbsp;probl\u00e9m\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" src=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-1.jpg 520w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-1-300x183.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-1-123x75.jpg 123w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-1-480x294.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:767px) 480px, 520px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Pr\u00e1vn\u00ed omezen\u00ed<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mezi v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 pr\u00e1vn\u00ed a technick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my spojen\u00e9 se sb\u011brem dat pat\u0159\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u011b neochota majitel\u016f dat poskytovat je v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdm t\u00fdm\u016fm. D\u016fvodem je to, \u017ee jde o mikrodata. Nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed s nimi v neanonymizovan\u00e9 podob\u011b je omezen\u00e9 pouze na n\u011bkter\u00e9 subjekty. Jejich poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed a vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed je definov\u00e1no pr\u00e1vn\u00edmi normami. Pr\u00e1vn\u00ed omezen\u00ed poskytnut\u00ed dat nen\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed jen \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, ale i dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edkladem je Litva (\u017dvalionyte 2011) \u010di It\u00e1lie (Martini et al. 2012).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace v r\u00e1mci OP LZZ je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed existence r\u00e1mcov\u00e9 smlouvy o poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed statistick\u00fdch dat mezi \u010cesk\u00fdm statistick\u00fdm \u00fa\u0159adem a Ministerstvem pr\u00e1ce a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed \u010cR. Obdobnou smlouvu maj\u00ed i dal\u0161\u00ed ministerstva. Tyto smlouvy umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed poskytnut\u00ed mikrodat \u0159\u00edd\u00edc\u00edm org\u00e1n\u016fm p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch program\u016f. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b OP LZZ pak \u0159\u00edd\u00edc\u00ed org\u00e1n zaji\u0161\u0165oval anonymizaci dat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm se tedy nikdy nedov\u011bd\u011bl konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed informace o konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed firm\u011b. Pro samotnou evaluaci to v\u0161ak ani nen\u00ed zapot\u0159eb\u00ed. Jak bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno v\u00fd\u0161e, metody kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace pracuj\u00ed s velk\u00fdm mno\u017estv\u00edm dat a znalost jednotliv\u00fdch firem nen\u00ed zapot\u0159eb\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Technick\u00e1 omezen\u00ed<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Problematick\u00fdm se uk\u00e1zala nutnost slu\u010dovat mno\u017estv\u00ed dat do pracovn\u00edch soubor\u016f. Evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm pracoval s 16 r\u016fzn\u00fdmi datov\u00fdmi soubory. V t\u011bchto souborech bylo obsa\u017eeno 715 prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, z nich\u017e 299 v\u0161ak byly prom\u011bnn\u00e9 z dotazn\u00edkov\u00fdch \u0161et\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u016fvodem pro tak vysok\u00fd po\u010det prom\u011bnn\u00fdch je pokryt\u00ed dat za obdob\u00ed 2006 a\u017e 2011. Prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 charakterizovaly firmy, bylo 69, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e velkou \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed byly prom\u011bnn\u00e9 vyjad\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed strukturu aktiv a pasiv firem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V r\u016fzn\u00fdch souborech se tak celkov\u011b objevovalo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 75 000 firem. Pro&nbsp;samotnou evaluaci v\u0161ak tak velk\u00fd po\u010det pou\u017eit nebyl, proto\u017ee u \u0159ady z&nbsp;nich n\u011bkter\u00e1 data sch\u00e1zela. Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi podpo\u0159en\u00fdmi firmami a&nbsp;firmami neuch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edmi se o podporu jsme pracovali se vzorkem 23 400 firem (v\u011bt\u0161inou t\u011bch ne\u017e\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edch). Neexistuje takov\u00fd pr\u016fnik v t\u011bchto datov\u00fdch souborech, aby u firmy byly vypln\u011bny v\u0161echny prom\u011bnn\u00e9. V\u017edy alespo\u0148 n\u011bkter\u00e9 hodnoty prom\u011bnn\u00fdch sch\u00e1z\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b srovn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi zam\u00edtnut\u00fdmi uchaze\u010di a podpo\u0159en\u00fdmi firmami, jsme pracovali se vzorkem 2630 firem (z toho 1447 podpo\u0159en\u00fdch firem).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z tohoto pohledu je pak jasn\u00e9, \u017ee nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9 slou\u010dit data do jedin\u00e9ho pracovn\u00edho souboru, proto\u017ee obvykl\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed nen\u00ed schopno rozumn\u011b pracovat s takto velk\u00fdmi soubory. Otev\u0159en\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch soubor\u016f trvalo minuty a\u017e des\u00edtky minut, v z\u00e1vislosti na v\u00fdkonu po\u010d\u00edta\u010de. Kv\u016fli tomu zvolil evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm jin\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 anal\u00fdza byla zpracov\u00e1na na&nbsp;zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 p\u0159ipraven\u00e9m datov\u00e9m souboru, kter\u00fd byl ur\u010den pouze pro danou anal\u00fdzu. T\u00edm se poda\u0159ilo sn\u00ed\u017eit n\u00e1ro\u010dnost na v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed techniku, ale&nbsp;zv\u00fd\u0161ila se t\u00edm organiza\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1ro\u010dnost cel\u00e9ho procesu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dal\u0161\u00edm technick\u00fdm omezen\u00edm bylo to, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 statistick\u00e9 programy d\u011blaly chyby p\u0159i slu\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed dat a nedoch\u00e1zelo k jejich spr\u00e1vn\u00e9mu p\u00e1rov\u00e1n\u00ed. P\u00e1rov\u00e1n\u00ed dat nakonec prov\u00e1d\u011bl evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm datab\u00e1zov\u00e9ho programu Microsoft Access. Proto je nutn\u00e9 p\u0159i ka\u017ed\u00e9m slu\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed dat prov\u00e9st kontrolu, zda nedo\u0161lo k chyb\u011b[7].<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nutn\u00e9 je tak\u00e9 zm\u00ednit to, \u017ee data p\u0159i zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed anal\u00fdz byly pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny ve&nbsp;form\u011b, kdy ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad reprezentoval jednu firmu. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b nap\u0159\u00edklad data z Monit 7+ byla \u010dlen\u011bna tak, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad reprezentoval jednu projektovou \u017e\u00e1dost. Proto evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm musel p\u0159ev\u00e9st i tato data do&nbsp;form\u00e1tu, kdy ka\u017ed\u00fd z \u0159\u00e1dk\u016f reprezentoval jednu firmu. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b 17 firem tyto firmy podaly v\u00edce \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed a m\u011bly dva podpo\u0159en\u00e9 projekty. U&nbsp;v\u00edce v\u00fdzev a v\u00edce \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edt p\u0159\u00edstupu v\u00edcerozm\u011brn\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy (Papay, Willett a Murname 2011). Nicm\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f s v\u00edce projekty je tak m\u00e1lo, \u017ee evalua\u010dn\u00ed t\u00fdm zvolil postup, kdy v\u00fd\u0161i podpory za jednotliv\u00e9 roky agregoval u t\u011bchto firem nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d podpo\u0159en\u00fdmi projekty. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, kdy jedna firma \u017e\u00e1dala o v\u00edce podpor, ale usp\u011bla jen u jedn\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dosti, byla pova\u017eov\u00e1na za podpo\u0159enou firmu a do anal\u00fdzy vstupovaly \u00fadaje za&nbsp;tuto podporu (tud\u00ed\u017e v souboru tato firma nebyla pova\u017eov\u00e1na za odm\u00edtnut\u00e9ho \u017eadatele).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Statistick\u00fd software<\/strong><br>V\u00fdb\u011br vhodn\u00e9ho software je dal\u0161\u00edm z potenci\u00e1ln\u011b omezuj\u00edc\u00edch faktor\u016f pro&nbsp;realizaci kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace. D\u016fvodem je realizace v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f ve v\u00edce expertech a mo\u017enosti spole\u010dn\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce mezi \u010dleny evalua\u010dn\u00edho t\u00fdmu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159i zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed byly vyu\u017eity jak statistick\u00e9 programy, za jejich\u017e licenci je nutn\u00e9 zaplatit, tak freewarov\u00e9 produkty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro p\u0159\u00edpravu dat byly vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny MS Excel a MS Access. Statistick\u00fdch program\u016f jako IBM SPSS, Matlab \u010di STATA je tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edvat, nicm\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159i pr\u00e1ci se zapojen\u00edm v\u00edce expert\u016f samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nar\u016fstaj\u00ed n\u00e1klady evalua\u010dn\u00edho t\u00fdmu za n\u00e1kup multilicenc\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alternativou jsou freewarov\u00e9 produkty jako R \u010di Octave. Ty maj\u00ed oproti komer\u010dn\u00edm produkt\u016fm v\u00fdhodu v komunit\u011b, kter\u00e1 s t\u011bmito statistick\u00fdmi programy pracuje. Pro \u0159adu ekonometrick\u00fdch anal\u00fdz jsou voln\u011b k dispozici skripty, kter\u00e9 mohou zrychlit programov\u00e1n\u00ed a zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00edch anal\u00fdz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>5.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Z\u00e1v\u011bry<\/strong><br>Rostouc\u00ed z\u00e1jem o pou\u017eit\u00ed ekonometrick\u00fdch metod p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed dopad\u016f politiky soudr\u017enosti vede k tomu, \u017ee se postupn\u011b posiluje i znalost v evalua\u010dn\u00ed komunit\u011b. Nav\u00edc se i samotn\u00e9 metody d\u00e1le vyv\u00edjej\u00ed a zdokonaluj\u00ed, aby pokud mo\u017eno poskytovaly co nejp\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odhady dopad\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Standardn\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto metod povede z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska ke&nbsp;zlep\u0161en\u00ed parametr\u016f, \u00fa\u010delnosti a \u00fa\u010dinnosti podpor politiky soudr\u017enosti. Pou\u017eit\u00ed t\u011bchto metod m\u00e1 v\u0161ak i sv\u00e1 omezen\u00ed, kter\u00fdch si mus\u00ed b\u00fdt v\u011bdomi jak zadavatel\u00e9 evaluac\u00ed (zejm\u00e9na \u0159\u00edd\u00edc\u00ed org\u00e1ny), tak i zpracovatel\u00e9. P\u0159i&nbsp;podcen\u011bn\u00ed t\u011bchto \u00faskal\u00ed mohou kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace poskytovat nerelevantn\u00ed informace, kter\u00e9 naopak implementaci podpor zhor\u0161\u00ed. Pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto metod proto nen\u00ed samo\u00fa\u010deln\u00e9 a vy\u017eaduje obez\u0159etnost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z\u00e1kladn\u00edmi p\u0159edpoklady pro \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b provedenou kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadovou evaluaci jsou:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>datov\u00fd soubor s dostate\u010dn\u011b vysok\u00fdm po\u010dtem zkouman\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>stejn\u00fd, nebo velmi podobn\u00fd typ podpory u v\u0161ech zkouman\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>statisticky shodn\u00e9 charakteristiky zkouman\u00e9 a kontroln\u00ed skupiny;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>znalost mechanism\u016f stoj\u00edc\u00edch za intervenc\u00ed (pro vysv\u011btlen\u00ed dopad\u016f a c\u00edlen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdzev, ale tak\u00e9 pro v\u00fdb\u011br vhodn\u00e9 instrument\u00e1ln\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e9);<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>znalost toho, kdy je mo\u017en\u00e9 generalizovat v\u00fdsledky odhadu dopad\u016f (n\u011bkter\u00e9 metody toto neumo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159esto\u017ee se metody kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e9 evaluace mohu zd\u00e1t komplikovan\u00e9, je mo\u017en\u00e9 se je nau\u010dit a \u00fa\u010deln\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvat p\u0159i zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed efektivity nejen politiky soudr\u017enosti, ale i dal\u0161\u00edch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch politik \u010di intervenc\u00ed financovan\u00fdch z jin\u00fdch zdroj\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pod\u011bkov\u00e1n\u00ed:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek vznikl na z\u00e1klad\u011b zku\u0161enost\u00ed s realizac\u00ed evalua\u010dn\u00edho projektu \u201ePilotn\u00ed counterfactual impact evaluation OP LZZ, oblast podpory 1.1\u201c financovan\u00e9ho z Evropsk\u00e9ho soci\u00e1ln\u00edho fondu a st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Auto\u0159i d\u011bkuj\u00ed Mark\u00e9t\u011b Pouzarov\u00e9 a J\u00e1chymu Hercherovi za podn\u011btn\u00e9 koment\u00e1\u0159e k prvn\u00ed verzi \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pozn\u00e1mky pod \u010darou:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[1] Pojem kontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed dopadov\u00e1 evaluace je zde pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n v souladu s pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm tohoto pojmu v dokumentech MMR-NOK (2013).<br>[2] P\u0159\u00edkladem randomizovan\u00e9ho v\u00fdb\u011bru je mexick\u00fd program Progresa. Informaci lze nal\u00e9zt nap\u0159\u00edklad v Gertler et al. (2011), kde je uvedena informace nejen o samotn\u00e9m programu, ale tak\u00e9 o metod\u00e1ch evaluace dopad\u016f.<br>[3] Jde o arbitr\u00e1rn\u00ed hranici stanovenou pravidly OP LZZ. Pokud by byly alokace ve v\u00fdzv\u00e1ch ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b by se hodnota t\u00e9to hranice zvy\u0161ovala. Nap\u0159\u00edklad u Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu Praha adaptabilita se v n\u011bkter\u00fdch v\u00fdzv\u00e1ch hranice mezi podporou a zam\u00edtnut\u00edm posunula p\u0159es 80 bod\u016f.<br>[4] Pokud byla vypracov\u00e1na pouze dv\u011b hodnocen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dosti, jde o tato dv\u011b hodnocen\u00ed. Pokud bylo zpracov\u00e1no i t\u0159et\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed, je pou\u017eito toto t\u0159et\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b s platn\u00fdm hodnocen\u00edm (zneplatn\u011bn\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed nebylo pou\u017eito).<br>[5] Nap\u0159\u00edklad jde o snahu um\u011ble navy\u0161ovat po\u010det vytvo\u0159en\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst, kdy\u017e respondenti v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee jde o hodnocen\u00ed dopad\u016f jimi realizovan\u00e9ho projektu na zam\u011bstnanost.<br>[6] Data bylo nutn\u00e9 p\u0159ed jejich p\u0159ed\u00e1n\u00edm zpracovateli evaluace anonymizovat.<br>[7] Nap\u0159\u00edklad, pokud se slu\u010dovala data z v\u00edce soubor\u016f a oba soubory obsahovaly informaci o regionu podnik\u00e1n\u00ed firmy, pak by zm\u011bna regionu p\u016fsoben\u00ed m\u011bla b\u00fdt pom\u011brn\u011b ojedin\u011bl\u00fdm jevem, i kdy\u017e ne vylou\u010den\u00fdm. Otestov\u00e1n\u00ed zm\u011bn v regionech p\u016fsoben\u00ed, \u010di oboru p\u016fsoben\u00ed je tak kontrolou bezchybn\u00e9ho slou\u010den\u00ed dvou soubor\u016f.<br>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Seznam pou\u017eit\u00e9 literatury:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[1] Criscuolo, CH., Martin, R., Overman, H., Van Reenen, J. (2012) \u201eThe&nbsp;causal effects of an industrial policy\u201d [online]. Cambridge: NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES, Working Paper 17842. [cit. 2013-06-30] Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w17842.pdf?new_window=1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[2] Evropsk\u00e1 Komise (2008) \u201eEvalsed: the resource for the evaluation of&nbsp;socio \u2013 economic development\u201c [online]. Brusel: Evropsk\u00e1 Komise [cit. 2012-04-17]. Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/regional_policy\/sources\/docgener\/evaluation\/evalsed\/index_en.html<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[3] Evropsk\u00e1 Komise (2012) \u201eN\u00e1vrh na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu a&nbsp;Rady o spole\u010dn\u00fdch ustanoven\u00edch ohledn\u011b EFRR, ESF, FS, EZRV a&nbsp;ENRF, jich\u017e se t\u00fdk\u00e1 spole\u010dn\u00fd strategick\u00fd r\u00e1mec, o obecn\u00fdch ustanoven\u00edch ohledn\u011b EFRR, ESF a FS a o zru\u0161en\u00ed na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Rady (ES) \u010d.&nbsp;1083\/2006\u201c [online]. Brusel: Evropsk\u00e1 komise [cit. 2013-06-30]. Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/ec.europa.eu<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[4] Gertler, P. J., Martinez, S., Premand, P., Rawlings, L., B., Vermeersch, CH., M., J. (2011) Impact evaluation in Practice. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development \/ The World Bank<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[5] Hora, O., Sirov\u00e1tka, T. (2012) Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed efekt\u016f aktivn\u00ed politiky zam\u011bstnanosti v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice v obdob\u00ed r\u016fstu (2007) a b\u011bhem prvn\u00ed f\u00e1ze krize (2009). Praha: V\u00fdzkumn\u00fd \u00fastav pr\u00e1ce a soci\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed, v.v.i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[6] Kv\u00e1\u010da, V., Potluka, O. (2011) \u201ePilotn\u00ed evaluace srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed metodou (counterfactual) v OP Lidsk\u00e9 zdroje a zam\u011bstnanost\u201c. Konference \u010cES Evaluace na rozcest\u00ed \u2013 trendy a praxe, 2. 6. 2011<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[7] Martini, A. et al. (2012) \u201eCounterfactual impact evaluation of enterprise support: Lessons for policy and evaluation design From investment subsidies in Italy\u201c, [online]. [cit. 2013-06-30] Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/www.prova.org\/studi-e-analisi\/ASVAPP%20INTERIM%20REPORT%20FOR%20CIE%20OF%20ENTERPRISE%20SUPPORT.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[8] MMR \u010cR \u2013 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed org\u00e1n pro koordinaci (2013) \u201eMetodick\u00fd pokyn MMR-NOK Z\u00e1sady tvorby a pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed indik\u00e1tor\u016f v programov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed 2014 \u2013 2020\u201c, pracovn\u00ed verze z \u00fanora 2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[9] Mouqu\u00e9, D. (2011) \u201ePresentation at workshop: How to capture the&nbsp;effects of EU funding? Bringing together qualitative and quantitative methods\u201d. Brussels: Open Days<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[10] Mouqu\u00e9, D. (2012) \u201eWhat are counterfactual impact evaluations teaching us about enterprise and innovation support?\u201d [online]. [cit.&nbsp;2013-06-30] Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/regional_policy\/sources\/docgener\/focus\/2012_02_counterfactual.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[11] Papay, J. P.; Willett J. B.; Murnane, R. J. (2011) \u201eExtending the Regression-Discontinuity Approach to Multiple Assignment Variables\u201c. Journal of Econometrics. 2011 161(2): 203\u2013207.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[12] Potluka, O. et al. (2013) \u201ePilotn\u00ed counterfactual impact evaluation OP&nbsp;LZZ, oblast podpory 1.1; Pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va \u010d. 2\u201c [online]. [cit.&nbsp;2013-06-30] Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/km.fph.vse.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/Druha_prubezna_zprava.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[13] Potluka, O., Br\u016fha, J., Voz\u00e1r, O., \u0160pa\u010dek, M., Loun, J. (2013) \u201eThe&nbsp;impact of subsidies on Czech firms\u201c, Statistika, forthcoming<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[14] White, H. (2009) \u201eTheory-Based Impact Evaluation: Principles and&nbsp;Practice, International Initiative for Impact Evalution\u201c [online]. New Delhi: International Initiative for Impact Evalution [cit. 2013-06-30] Working paper Nr. 3. Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/www.3ieimpact.org\/media\/filer\/2012\/05\/07\/Working_Paper_3.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[15] \u017dvalionyte, D. (2011) \u201eBackground paper for the expert hearing on&nbsp;MS experience on using kontrol Gross in ESF evaluation: the case of Lithuania\u201c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The growing interest in studying impacts of implementation of the EU Cohesion Policy resulted in application of rigorous evaluation methods. This study aims at sharing experience with the process of implementation of a counterfactual impact evaluation in the Czech Republic as there is not much experience with the application of such evaluations in the EU Cohesion policy. In particular, the paper concentrates on the most problematic parts of this type of evaluation that are mainly data collection and data processing and pitfalls of the used methods.<\/p>\n<p>For this purpose the paper uses counterfactual Impact evaluation &#8220;Pilot counterfactual impact evaluation OP HRE Area 1.1&#8221; as a case to show experience. Specifically, the evaluation of the impacts of the European Social Fund trainings in companies as a case study is employed as a case study.<\/p>\n<p>Experience and results of this study can be then used in the preparation of future impact evaluations not only for the European Social Fund, but also for the European Regional Development Fund in 2014\u20132020. The implementation of counterfactual impact evaluations may result in increased effectiveness of the Structural Funds interventions through targeted calls for proposals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1312"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1312\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1316,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1312\/revisions\/1316"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}