{"id":1447,"date":"2023-08-30T17:00:19","date_gmt":"2023-08-30T15:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/uncategorized\/evaluace-dopadu-verejnych-vydajovych-programu-na-kvalitu-ovzdusi\/"},"modified":"2023-09-18T09:14:22","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T07:14:22","slug":"evaluation-of-public-expenditure-programmes-in-air-quality-protection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/articles\/evaluation-of-public-expenditure-programmes-in-air-quality-protection\/","title":{"rendered":"Evaluation of Public Expenditure Programmes in Air Quality Protection"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Evaluation of Public Expenditure Programmes in Air Quality Protection<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstrakt<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 ovzdu\u0161\u00ed m\u00e1 vliv na zdrav\u00ed obyvatelstva. Proto existuj\u00ed programy, jako je Opera\u010dn\u00ed program \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem jsou investice ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed koncentrac\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e1tek v ovzdu\u0161\u00ed. Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek se v\u011bnuje vyhodnocen\u00ed dopad\u016f prioritn\u00ed osy 2 Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b jde o odpov\u011b\u010f na ot\u00e1zku, zda investice t\u00e9to prioritn\u00ed osy vedly ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ovzdu\u0161\u00ed na Ostravsku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro odhad dopad\u016f je pou\u017eita metoda synthetic control method, kter\u00e1 um\u011ble vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed skupinu pro zkouman\u00fd region. Na datech o m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch koncentrac\u00edch zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e1tek PM2.5 a PM10 a investic\u00edch do kvality ovzdu\u0161\u00ed je odhadov\u00e1n dopad na koncentrace polutant\u016f po roce 2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00fdsledky ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee realizace t\u011bchto investi\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f v tuto chv\u00edli nem\u00e1 prokazateln\u00fd pozitivn\u00ed vliv na zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u010dasov\u00e1 \u0159ada, kter\u00e1 byla v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku vyu\u017eita, byla p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 s ohledem na dynamiku \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Air pollution is proven to adversely affect human health. For this reason, public authorities intervene to decrease air pollution. In the Czech Republic, an example of such an intervention is the Operational Programme Environment. This article asks whether the investments under the priority axis 2 of this programme have led to a decrease in air pollution in the Ostrava region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The synthetic control method is used to estimate the impacts of the intervention. This method is based on an artificially created comparison group for the evaluated region. The impact of the intervention on air pollution after the year 2012 is estimated on the monthly data of average concentrations of pollutants PM2.5 and PM10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results show that this investment has not led to a significant reduction in pollutant concentrations. The caveat is that time series is still too short and the reduction of air pollution due to impacts of the Operational Programme Environment may be identified in future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 slova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dopadov\u00e1 evaluace, ovzdu\u0161\u00ed, opera\u010dn\u00ed program, Fondy EU, zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ovzdu\u0161\u00ed<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keywords<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact evaluation, air, operational programme, EU funds, air pollution<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \u00davod<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je st\u00e1le v\u00edce patrn\u00e9, \u017ee i zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 byly d\u0159\u00edve za\u0159azov\u00e1ny mezi rozvinut\u00e9, maj\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 zdroje velmi omezen\u00e9. Proto je i v \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00edch Evropsk\u00e9 unie kladen st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed d\u016fraz na maxim\u00e1ln\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9 efektivn\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f. Patrn\u00fd je v tomto sm\u011bru i tlak ze strany Evropsk\u00e9 komise na to, aby byly vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ny rigor\u00f3zn\u00ed metody v\u00fdzkumu dopad\u016f a efektivnosti politik. St\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji se objevuj\u00ed v\u00fdzkumy v\u011bnovan\u00e9 dopad\u016fm podp\u016frn\u00fdch program\u016f ve firm\u00e1ch (Bondonio a Engberg, 2000; Battistin a Rettore 2002; Alecke, 2012; Czarnitzki, Bento a Doherr, 2011, ASVAPP, 2012; Alecke at al., 2002) nebo podporu zam\u011bstnanosti (Wunsch a Lechner, 2008; Hamersma, 2008; Gault, Leach a Duey, 2010; Degravel, 2011; Abramovsky et al., 2011; nebo Lechner, Miquel a Wunsch, 2011).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V\u00fdznam kvality ovzdu\u0161\u00ed a jeho zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed na zdrav\u00ed obyvatelstva je nezpochybniteln\u00fd. \u0158ada v\u00fdzkum\u016f se v\u011bnuje problematice vztahu zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ovzdu\u0161\u00ed a zdrav\u00edm obyvatelstva. Zde uv\u00e1d\u00edme pouze stru\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fd\u010det studi\u00ed z posledn\u00ed doby, kter\u00e9 se v\u011bnuj\u00ed stejn\u00fdm polutant\u016fm, jak\u00fdm jsme se ve sv\u00e9m v\u00fdzkumu v\u011bnovali my, tj. PM2.5 a PM10, ale zahrnuj\u00ed i nap\u0159\u00edklad O3<\/sub>, SOx a NOx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Vlivem prachov\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stic PM2.5 <\/sub>a PM10 <\/sub>na zdrav\u00ed obyvatel se zab\u00fdvalo v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b n\u011bkolik studi\u00ed (Arraz et al, 2014, Garshick, 2014, Lagravinese, 2014, Raun et al, 2014, Yorifuji et al, 2014, nebo Esposito et al, 2014). Vliv na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00famrtnost v d\u016fsledku PM2.5 <\/sub>v \u0159\u00e1du stovek osob a kardiorespira\u010dn\u00ed a plicn\u00ed onemocn\u011bn\u00ed rakovinou a respira\u010dn\u00ed probl\u00e9my a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00famrtnost v d\u016fsledku PM10 <\/sub>v \u0159\u00e1du des\u00edtek osob ve Valladolidu ve \u0160pan\u011blsku zmi\u0148uje Arraz et al (2014). U PM2.5 <\/sub>se potvrzuje zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost chronick\u00e9 plicn\u00ed obstruk\u010dn\u00ed nemoci (Garshick, 2014), zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost zdravotn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f (Wilker et al, 2014; Yorifuji et al, 2014). Lagravinese (2014) na vzorku 103 italsk\u00fdch provinci\u00ed prok\u00e1zal vliv PM10 <\/sub>na \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hospitalizaci v d\u016fsledku chronick\u00e9 obstruk\u010dn\u00ed plicn\u00ed nemoci u d\u011bt\u00ed (studie v\u0161ak neprok\u00e1zala vliv PM2.5<\/sub>, obdobn\u011b jako studie Raun et al, 2014). U PM10 <\/sub>je dokumentov\u00e1na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost astmatick\u00fdch z\u00e1chvat\u016f a respira\u010dn\u00edch onemocn\u011bn\u00ed u d\u011bt\u00ed v Mil\u00e1n\u011b v It\u00e1lii (Esposito et al 2014).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b oz\u00f3nu byl prok\u00e1z\u00e1n vliv na \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hospitalizaci v d\u016fsledku chronick\u00e9 obstruk\u010dn\u00ed plicn\u00ed nemoci u dosp\u011bl\u00fdch (Lagravinese 2014), vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost astmatick\u00e9ho z\u00e1chvatu (nav\u00edc zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 v kombinaci s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm NO2<\/sub>) v Houstonu (Raun et al, 2014). Naopak studie Arraz et al (2014), Garshick (2014), Yorifuji et al (2014) neuv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed vliv t\u00e9to zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed l\u00e1tky (ostatn\u00ed polutanty m\u011bly v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vliv na zdravotn\u00ed stav zkouman\u00fdch osob).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed l\u00e1tka NO2<\/sub> m\u00e1 vliv na zv\u00fd\u0161enou pravd\u011bpodobnost chronick\u00e9 plicn\u00ed obstruk\u010dn\u00ed nemoci (Garshick 2014), zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost astmatick\u00e9ho z\u00e1chvatu, nav\u00edc je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b tuto pravd\u011bpodobnost zvy\u0161uje kombinace s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm O3<\/sub> (Raun et al, 2014) a tak\u00e9 m\u00e1 tato l\u00e1tka vliv na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost astmatick\u00fdch z\u00e1chvat\u016f a respira\u010dn\u00edch onemocn\u011bn\u00ed u d\u011bt\u00ed (Esposito et al (2014). Shrnut\u00ed t\u011bchto studi\u00ed zobrazuje tabulka \u010d. 1.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    P\u0159esto\u017ee existuje cel\u00e1 \u0159ada studi\u00ed zkoumaj\u00edc\u00ed vliv zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed na zdrav\u00ed obyvatelstva, evaluace vlivu podp\u016frn\u00fdch program\u016f na \u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed a zdrav\u00ed lid\u00ed je naopak opomenut\u00fdm t\u00e9matem. Zde prezentovan\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem chceme tuto mezeru zaplnit a p\u0159isp\u011bt k rozvoji aplikace evalua\u010dn\u00edch metod v oblasti, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed tak \u010dasto evaluov\u00e1na. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b jde tedy o v\u00fdzkum dopad\u016f ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch v\u00fddajov\u00fdch program\u016f na kvalitu \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, specificky na kvalitu ovzdu\u0161\u00ed. V\u00fdzkumn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, na kterou chceme odpov\u011bd\u011bt je: Jak\u00fd maj\u00ed vliv investice ur\u010den\u00e9 na programy ochrany ovzdu\u0161\u00ed na lok\u00e1ln\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Zkoumanou oblast\u00ed je Ostravsko, nebo\u0165 jde o region, kter\u00fd pat\u0159\u00ed co do zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ovzdu\u0161\u00ed mezi nejexponovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed regiony v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice a i proto se na n\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159ily n\u011bkter\u00e9 z podpor Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed (OP \u017dP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st studie je \u010dlen\u011bna n\u00e1sledovn\u011b. Po prvn\u00ed, \u00favodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdznam t\u00e9matu evaluac\u00ed v oblasti \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, n\u00e1sleduje druh\u00e1 kapitola, v\u011bnovan\u00e1 popisu zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed zkouman\u00fdch intervenc\u00ed. T\u0159et\u00ed kapitola popisuje data z monitorovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed, data o polutantech z \u010cesk\u00e9ho hydrometeorologick\u00e9ho \u00fastavu a v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b i metodu synthetic control method, kter\u00e1 je pou\u017eita pro tento v\u00fdzkum. \u010ctvrt\u00e1 kapitola popisuje podrobn\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed metody a jej\u00ed v\u00fdsledky, kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee ve sledovan\u00e9m obdob\u00ed nedo\u0161lo ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed kvality ovzdu\u0161\u00ed na Ostravsku. Posledn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st celou studii uzav\u00edr\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. <\/a>Zkouman\u00e9 programy podpory ochrany ovzdu\u0161\u00ed<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Opera\u010dn\u00ed program \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed je programem zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na investice Evropsk\u00e9ho fondu pro region\u00e1ln\u00ed rozvoj a Fondu soudr\u017enosti v oblasti ochrany kvality \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed. \u0158\u00eddic\u00edm org\u00e1nem OP \u017dP je Ministerstvo \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u010cR a zprost\u0159edkuj\u00edc\u00edm subjektem je St\u00e1tn\u00ed fond \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u010cR. \u017dadatel\u00e9 p\u0159edkl\u00e1daj\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dosti o financov\u00e1n\u00ed zprost\u0159edkuj\u00edc\u00edmu subjektu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e kvalita jejich \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed je hodnocena podle p\u0159edem definovan\u00fdch krit\u00e9ri\u00ed p\u0159ijatelnosti vymezen\u00fdch programem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Objektem na\u0161eho v\u00fdzkumu je OP \u017dP, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b prioritn\u00ed osa 2 zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed kvality ovzdu\u0161\u00ed a sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed. Prvn\u00edm ze specifick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f t\u00e9to prioritn\u00ed osy je sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed expozice obyvatelstva nadlimitn\u00edmi koncentracemi PM10<\/sub> a koncentracemi PM2.5<\/sub>, co\u017e jsou polutanty, kter\u00e9 podrobujeme na\u0161emu v\u00fdzkumu. OP \u017dP si definovalo jako indik\u00e1tor v t\u00e9to prioritn\u00ed ose pod\u00edl obyvatelstva \u010cR, kter\u00fd je vystaven nadlimitn\u00edm koncentrac\u00edm PM10. <\/sub>C\u00edlem je sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed tohoto ukazatele z 66% \u00farovn\u011b v roce 2005 na \u00farove\u0148 60 % na konci programovac\u00edho obdob\u00ed v roce 2013 (M\u017dP, 2012, str. 117).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      V r\u00e1mci tohoto v\u00fdzkumu se zam\u011b\u0159ujeme na investice na Ostravsku v Moravskoslezsk\u00e9m kraji. V tomto kraji byl realizov\u00e1n nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed po\u010det projekt\u016f v prioritn\u00ed ose 2 (12,7 %) ze v\u0161ech kraj\u016f \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky. Co se t\u00fd\u010de finan\u010dn\u00ed alokace v prioritn\u00ed ose 2, pak z celkov\u00e9 sumy 17,6 mld. K\u010d investovan\u00fdch v \u010cR, bylo cel\u00fdch 41,0 % investov\u00e1no pr\u00e1v\u011b v Moravskoslezsk\u00e9m kraji (pro dal\u0161\u00ed informace o alokac\u00edch viz tabulka \u010d. 2).<\/p>\n\n\n

      \n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
        \n
      1. <\/a>Data<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        <\/a>3.1 Data<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Data, kter\u00e1 byla pou\u017eita pro anal\u00fdzy, poch\u00e1z\u00ed z monitorovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed a z \u010cesk\u00e9ho hydrometeorologick\u00e9ho \u00fastavu (\u010cHM\u00da). Data o projektech umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed identifikaci oblasti podpory, term\u00edny zah\u00e1jen\u00ed a ukon\u010den\u00ed projekt\u016f, kr\u00e1tk\u00fd slovn\u00ed popis realizovan\u00fdch aktivit, v\u00fd\u0161i finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory a obec, ve kter\u00e9 byl projekt realizov\u00e1n. Data z \u010cHM\u00da obsahuj\u00ed informaci ze 72 m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00edch stanic rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch po cel\u00e9 \u010cR, tak \u017ee je plo\u0161n\u011b pokryto cel\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed a tud\u00ed\u017e je mo\u017en\u00e9 data pou\u017e\u00edt pro konstrukci syntetick\u00e9ho regionu (viz d\u00e1le v \u010d\u00e1sti o metod\u011b). Data pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed koncentraci zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e1tek PM2,5 <\/sub>a PM10<\/sub>, NOx, SO2 <\/sub>pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota vzduchu, pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 d\u00e9lka slune\u010dn\u00edho svitu a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd \u00fahrn sr\u00e1\u017eek po jednotliv\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Data \u010cHM\u00da pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed obdob\u00ed za roky 2006\u20132013. Data z monitorovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed krat\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed, proto\u017ee programovac\u00ed obdob\u00ed vztahuj\u00edc\u00ed se na OP \u017dP spad\u00e1 do obdob\u00ed 2007\u20132013.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho jsme schopni p\u0159i\u0159adit k jednotliv\u00fdm region\u016fm nejen v\u00fd\u0161i investice na ochranu a zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed kvality ovzdu\u0161\u00ed, ale t\u00e9\u017e pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed situaci v dan\u00e9m obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n

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        \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

        <\/a>3.2 Popisn\u00e1 statistika<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        V t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti textu popisujeme z\u00e1kladn\u00ed charakteristiky datov\u00e9ho souboru. \u010casov\u00e9 \u0159ady zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed za jednotliv\u00e9 zkouman\u00e9 polutanty za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed od ledna 2006 do roku konce roku 2013 a jedn\u00e1 se o m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed data. Pro SO2<\/sub> pracujeme v\u0161ak s daty od ledna 2008 a u PM10<\/sub> od ledna 2007; d\u016fvodem jsou chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed data pro velkou \u010d\u00e1st stanic v letech 2006 a 2007 pro SO2<\/sub> (resp. pro rok 2006 pro PM10<\/sub>). Do anal\u00fdzy jsme pou\u017eili \u00fadaje za m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed stanice, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly alespo\u0148 80 % dat za dan\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Tabulka 4 ukazuje popisnou statistiku pro PM2.5<\/sub>. Pro tento typ polutantu m\u00e1me \u00fadaje za 5 m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00edch stanic na Ostravsku. Pro ka\u017edou stanici uv\u00e1d\u00edme pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 koncentrace pro cel\u00e9 obdob\u00ed, pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 koncentrace pro obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed a po lednu 2012, p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky, p-hodnota statistick\u00e9ho testu rovnosti pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch koncentrac\u00ed p\u0159ed a po lednu 2012 (p-hodnota ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 0,05 by indikovala zam\u00edtnut\u00ed hypot\u00e9zy o rovnosti pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch koncentrac\u00ed) a po\u010dty m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed pro jednotliv\u00e1 obdob\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Z tabulky je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 koncentrace p\u0159ed a po roce 2012 nejsou od sebe signifikantn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 a tud\u00ed\u017e nep\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1me hypot\u00e9zu o tom, \u017ee by po roce 2012 koncentrace PM2.5<\/sub> poklesly. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 sm\u011brodatn\u00e9 odchylky jsou pom\u011brn\u011b vysok\u00e9, co\u017e je zp\u016fsobeno velkou sez\u00f3nnost\u00ed \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady (koncentrace jsou typicky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Z toho d\u016fvodu jsme provedli dodate\u010dn\u00e9 statistick\u00e9 testy, kter\u00e9 pomoc\u00ed regresn\u00ed rovnice, v n\u00ed\u017e jsou v roli dummy prom\u011bnn\u00fdch sez\u00f3nn\u00ed vlivy, dummy prom\u011bnn\u00e1 pro obdob\u00ed po roce 2012 a jejich interakce, testovaly, zda nedo\u0161lo ke statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu poklesu koncentrac\u00ed po roce 2012 alespo\u0148 v zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch (lednu a \u00fanoru). Ani tento test neukazuje na statisticky signifikantn\u00ed pokles koncentrac\u00ed. Pro robustnost v\u00fdsledk\u016f jsme do regresn\u00ed specifikace zahrnuli \u010dasov\u00fd trend, abychom odhalili p\u0159\u00edpadnou tendenci koncentrac\u00ed k poklesu, ale ani zde statistick\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159ineslo signifikantn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky.<\/p>\n\n\n

        \n
        \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

        Obdobn\u00e9 \u00fadaje vych\u00e1z\u00ed i pro ostatn\u00ed polutanty, tedy SO2<\/sub>, NOx<\/sub>, a PM10<\/sub>. Ani pro tyto polutanty se neukazuje, \u017ee by pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 koncentrace vyk\u00e1zaly statisticky signifikantn\u00ed pokles po roce 2012 (\u010di jin\u00e9 varianty \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed). Provedli jsme tak\u00e9 dodate\u010dn\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed s explicitn\u00edm zahrnut\u00edm sez\u00f3nn\u00edch dummy prom\u011bnn\u00fdch a se zahrnut\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9ho trendu. Op\u011bt jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b PM2.5<\/sub> tyto testy tak\u00e9 nep\u0159inesly evidenci o poklesu koncentrac\u00ed. Jistou v\u00fdjimkou jsou koncentrace SO2<\/sub>, kde statistick\u00fd test poklesu koncentrac\u00ed po roce 2012 pro n\u011bkter\u00e9 m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed stanice pro zimn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce vykazuje p-hodnotu okolo 0,08 (co\u017e je v\u0161ak hodnota, kter\u00e1 nesta\u010d\u00ed k zam\u00edtnut\u00ed nulov\u00e9 hypot\u00e9zy o rovnosti koncentrac\u00ed na konven\u010dn\u00ed hladin\u011b 5 %).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Je tedy mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee alespo\u0148 pro SO2<\/sub> se uk\u00e1\u017ee pokles koncentrac\u00ed v zimn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch, nicm\u00e9n\u011b data jsou nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 na to, abychom toto p\u0159ijali jako robustn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011br.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        1. <\/a>Pou\u017eit\u00e1 metod<\/strong>a<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          V t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti stru\u010dn\u011b pop\u00ed\u0161eme aplikovanou metodu — Synthetic Control Method (SCM) a zd\u016fvodn\u00edme jej\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00ed. Jedn\u00e1 se o evalua\u010dn\u00ed metodu, kter\u00e1 se aplikuje, jsou-li k disposici data za relativn\u011b m\u00e1lo jednotek, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se v\u011bt\u0161inou jedn\u00e1 o velk\u00e9 jednotky, jak\u00fdmi jsou m\u011bsta, regiony nebo zem\u011b. T\u00edm se li\u0161\u00ed nap\u0159. od metod zalo\u017een\u00fdch na p\u00e1rov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 po\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed data za mnoho, obvykle mal\u00fdch jednotek (nap\u0159. individu\u00ed nebo firem). Metoda byla vyvinuta a zpopularizov\u00e1na v prac\u00edch Abadie a Gardeazabal (2003) a Abadie et al. (2010). V environment\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomii byla tato metoda aplikov\u00e1na nap\u0159. v pr\u00e1ci Almer a Winkler (2012), kte\u0159\u00ed vyhodnocovali dopady efekt\u016f Kj\u00f3tsk\u00e9ho protokolu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b intervenc\u00ed OP \u017dP bude typicky nedostate\u010dn\u011b spln\u011bna podm\u00ednka dostate\u010dn\u00e9 statistick\u00e9 vydatnosti datov\u00fdch soubor\u016f (bude p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo zkouman\u00fdch jednotek, na kter\u00fdch by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 uplatnit statistick\u00fd z\u00e1kon velk\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel). V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zkouman\u00e9m v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku, tj. v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b investic do ochrany ovzdu\u0161\u00ed, se v\u0161ak bude obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b hledat velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed region\u016f, kter\u00e9 by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 mezi sebou srovn\u00e1vat, a proto pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me metodu SCM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Princip SCM spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpadech, kdy neexistuje kontroln\u00ed skupina, je nutn\u00e9 takovou skupinu vytvo\u0159it um\u011ble[1]<\/sup><\/a> (d\u00e1le pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me pojem \u201esyntetizovat\u201c). SCM je zalo\u017eena na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed hypotetick\u00e9 syntetick\u00e9 jednotky, kter\u00e1 v obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed intervenc\u00ed velmi p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 pozorovan\u00e9 charakteristiku zkouman\u00e9 jednotky. N\u00e1sledn\u011b rozd\u00edl mezi charakteristikami syntetick\u00fdch jednotek a skute\u010dn\u00fdch jednotek, kter\u00e9 obdr\u017eely intervenci, je ch\u00e1p\u00e1n jako odhad vlivu intervence. Obecn\u00fdm principem je zalo\u017eit konstrukci syntetick\u00e9 (\u201ekontrafaktu\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c) jednotky na regresn\u00ed anal\u00fdze vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00edch dat z jin\u00fdch jednotek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          V na\u0161em p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jsme \u201enasyntetizovali\u201c \u010dasov\u00e9 \u0159ady koncentrac\u00ed PM2.5 <\/sub>a PM10<\/sub> na Ostravsku (syntetizovali jsme i dal\u0161\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed l\u00e1tky, ale tyto dv\u011b pova\u017eujeme, s ohledem na c\u00edle programu, za nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed). \u201eSyntetick\u00fd\u201c region je postaven na datech do 2012 (nebo podle toho, jak\u00fd rok vezmeme jako p\u0159elomov\u00fd) v\u010detn\u011b a kontrafaktu\u00e1l (p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd v\u00fdvoj bez investic) je od ledna 2013 (\u010di po p\u0159elomov\u00e9m roce). Aby poskytla metoda kredibiln\u00ed v\u00fdsledky, je t\u0159eba, aby regrese na z\u00e1klad\u011b dat z jin\u00fdch region\u016f dob\u0159e vysv\u011btlila zkouman\u00fd region do obdob\u00ed 2012 (resp. ve zkouman\u00e9m obdob\u00ed).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Pro lep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstaven\u00ed t\u00e9to metody, bude ilustrov\u00e1na na na\u0161em konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b. Nech\u0165 xit<\/sub> jsou koncentrace zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v \u010dase t pro m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed stanici i. Pro t p\u0159ed rokem 2012 (tedy p\u0159ed obdob\u00edm p\u0159ed intervenc\u00ed) odhadujeme regresn\u00ed rovnici tvaru:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          xit<\/sub> = \u03b10i<\/sub> + zit<\/sub> \u03b2 + eit<\/sub>,      (1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          kde zit<\/sub> jsou pozorovan\u00e9 veli\u010diny vztahuj\u00edc\u00ed se k \u010dasu t a k regionu, v n\u011bm\u017e se nach\u00e1z\u00ed m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed stanice i, \u03b2 a \u03b10i<\/sub> jsou koeficienty a eit<\/sub> jsou idiosynkratick\u00e9 chyby. Pokud tento regresn\u00ed model je schopen dob\u0159e vysv\u011btlit koncentrace zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ve zkouman\u00e9m regionu, m\u00e1me dobrou syntetickou prom\u011bnnou a metoda m\u016f\u017ee poskytnout validn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Odhadnut\u00e9 koeficienty \u03b2 a \u03b10i<\/sub> (explicitn\u011b upozor\u0148ujeme, \u017ee odhad mus\u00ed b\u00fdt proveden na datech p\u0159ed intervenc\u00ed<\/em>) jsou pak pou\u017eity na \u201esynt\u00e9zu\u201c zkouman\u00e9ho regionu pro obdob\u00ed po intervenci (tj. po 2012). Na z\u00e1klad\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00fdch veli\u010din zit<\/sub> a rovnice (1) lze pak spo\u010d\u00edtat o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 hodnoty zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ve zkouman\u00e9m regionu, kter\u00e9 by nastaly, pokud by intervence nebyla p\u0159\u00edtomna. Rozd\u00edl mezi takto \u201esyntetizovan\u00fdmi\u201c hodnotami a skute\u010dn\u00fdmi hodnotami je odhad intervence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Pokud odhadneme sm\u011brodatnou odchylku odhadnut\u00fdch koeficient\u016f a n\u00e1hodn\u00fdch slo\u017eek eit<\/sub>, lze jednodu\u0161e zkonstruovat i intervaly spolehlivosti pro syntetick\u00e9 hodnoty a tedy testovat statistickou v\u00fdznamnost odchylek syntetick\u00fdch a skute\u010dn\u00fdch hodnot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          1. <\/a>V\u00fdsledky a diskuse<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            Jak je patrn\u00e9 z tabulky \u010d. 3, intenzita podpory se postupn\u011b zvy\u0161uje. I p\u0159esto pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 koncentrace statisticky v\u00fdznamn\u011b nepoklesly, jak dokl\u00e1daj\u00ed v\u00fdsledky z tabulky \u010d. 4. To v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b znamenat, \u017ee intervence nem\u011bla efekt. Je toti\u017e mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee bez intervence by pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 koncentrace mohly vzr\u016fst a efekt intervence je pak vlastn\u011b rozd\u00edl mezi t\u00edmto hypotetick\u00fdm vzr\u016fstem a sou\u010dasnou hodnotou. Aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 konstatovat, zda intervence skute\u010dn\u011b m\u011bla nebo ne vliv aplikujeme v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bnou metodu synthetic control method<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Pro demonstraci metody jsme pou\u017eili jako zlomov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed rok 2012, nicm\u00e9n\u011b jsme provedli anal\u00fdzy i pro jin\u00e1 obdob\u00ed. Nev\u00fdhodou je, \u017ee data pokr\u00fdvaj\u00ed obdob\u00ed, ve kter\u00e9m prob\u00edhala intenz\u00edvn\u00ed podpora, a tud\u00ed\u017e m\u016f\u017ee ovliv\u0148ovat v\u00fdsledky. Na tomto m\u00edst\u011b nen\u00ed dostatek prostoru pro prezentaci v\u00fdsledk\u016f pro v\u0161echny m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed stanice a varianty \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, nicm\u00e9n\u011b na vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed jsou auto\u0159i schopni tyto v\u00fdsledky poskytnout. Auto\u0159i tak\u00e9 na po\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed mohou poskytnout k\u00f3dy v softwaru Octave, kter\u00e9 mohou replikovat v\u0161echny v\u00fdsledky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Jak bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno v p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti, pro metodu je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd spr\u00e1vn\u00fd v\u00fdb\u011br vysv\u011btluj\u00edc\u00edch prom\u011bnn\u00fdch pro rovnici (1). Jde o to, aby vysv\u011btlen\u00ed pozorovan\u00fdch koncentrac\u00ed v obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed intervenc\u00ed<\/em> bylo co nejlep\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Jak\u00e9 veli\u010diny je mo\u017en\u00e9 volit v dan\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b? Nab\u00edz\u00ed se p\u0159irozen\u011b jednak socio-ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fadaje za jednotliv\u00e9 regiony, kter\u00e9 by mohly m\u00edt vliv na \u00farove\u0148 zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed (zde jsme brali v \u00favahu m\u00edry ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity jako je HDP na obyvatele, nezam\u011bstnanost, po\u010det pracuj\u00edc\u00edch v pr\u016fmyslu, po\u010det osobn\u00edch a n\u00e1kladn\u00edch automobil\u016f) a indik\u00e1tory po\u010das\u00ed (teplota, v\u00edtr). Byli jsme ov\u0161em limitov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fadaji, kter\u00e9 jsou k disposici za v\u0161echny regiony \u010cR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee existuje jedna veli\u010dina, kter\u00e1 velmi dob\u0159e vysv\u011btluje koncentrace zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed na Ostravsku a tou je prvn\u00ed hlavn\u00ed komponenta (first principal component<\/em>) zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed z m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00edch stanic ze v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch kraj\u016f \u010cR. Pokud tato veli\u010dina je zahrnuta do regrese, lze vysv\u011btlit typicky v\u00edce ne\u017e 80% variability dat a ostatn\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e9 jsou nesignifikantn\u00ed. To pochopiteln\u011b neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee by ekonomick\u00e1 aktivita, po\u010det aut nebo po\u010das\u00ed nebylo relevantn\u00ed pro koncentrace zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 znamen\u00e1 to v\u0161ak, \u017ee tyto veli\u010diny jsou velmi zkorelovan\u00e9 na \u00farovni \u010cR a tud\u00ed\u017e jsou \u201eobsa\u017eeny\u201c v pou\u017eit\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed komponentn\u011b. Zde upozor\u0148ujeme, \u017ee toto nen\u00ed obecn\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br, ale t\u00fdk\u00e1 se pouze zkouman\u00e9ho probl\u00e9mu. Pro p\u0159\u00edpad jin\u00fdch datov\u00fdch soubor\u016f nebo jin\u00fdch aplikac\u00ed metody SCM nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt regrese zalo\u017een\u00e1 na hlavn\u00edch komponent\u00e1ch vhodn\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Jak\u00e9 jsou v\u00fdsledky? Jako p\u0159\u00edklad v\u00fdsledk\u016f se pod\u00edvejme na obr\u00e1zek 1, kter\u00fd ukazuje data za koncentrace PM2.5<\/sub> ve vybran\u00fdch m\u011b\u0159ic\u00edch stanic\u00edch v Moravskoslezsk\u00e9m kraji. Nep\u0159eru\u0161ovanou \u010darou jsou vyzna\u010dena pozorovan\u00e1 data. Te\u010dkovan\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra vyzna\u010duje jednak syntetizovan\u00e1 data p\u0159ed rokem 2012 a odhadnut\u00e1 na z\u00e1klad\u011b rovnice (1) a pak v\u00fdvoj po roce 2012. Vid\u00edme, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e1 a syntetizovan\u00e1 data jsou si velmi podobn\u00e1 a tud\u00ed\u017e rovnice (1) na datech p\u0159ed rokem 2012 m\u00e1 velmi dobr\u00fd fit.<\/p>\n\n\n

            \n
            \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

            Bohu\u017eel syntetick\u00e1 veli\u010dina a data jsou si podobn\u00e1 i po lednu 2012, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee intervence m\u011bla pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b jen velmi mal\u00fd vliv na zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. Form\u00e1ln\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, data po roce 2012 jsou v mez\u00edch interval\u016f spolehlivosti pro syntetickou veli\u010dinu a tud\u00ed\u017e data a syntetick\u00e1 veli\u010dina jsou statisticky tak\u0159ka \u201etoto\u017en\u00e9\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Pokud by intervence m\u011bla signifikantn\u00ed vliv na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, m\u011bla by se syntetick\u00e1 veli\u010dina nach\u00e1zet signifikantn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e nad pozorovan\u00fdmi daty (nejl\u00e9pe nad horn\u00edm intervalem spolehlivosti). To ov\u0161em nen\u00ed tento p\u0159\u00edpad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Podobnou anal\u00fdzu jsme provedli i pro v\u0161echny m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed stanice a v\u0161echny polutanty a nena\u0161li jsme ani jeden p\u0159\u00edpad, kdy by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee intervence m\u011bla signifikantn\u00ed vliv na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed koncentrac\u00ed polutant\u016f po roce 2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Posledn\u00ed pozn\u00e1mka se t\u00fdk\u00e1 sez\u00f3nnosti. Jak jsme diskutovali p\u0159i popisu dat (a jak je koneckonc\u016f vid\u011bt i z obr\u00e1zku), data koncentrac\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed jsou velmi sez\u00f3nn\u00ed. Bystr\u00fd \u010dten\u00e1\u0159 se m\u016f\u017ee ot\u00e1zat, zda tak\u0159ka perfektn\u00ed fit rovnice (1) nen\u00ed zp\u016fsobem pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edmto sez\u00f3nn\u00edm faktorem, co\u017e by mohlo znehodnotit na\u0161i anal\u00fdzu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Z tohoto d\u016fvodu jsme pro robustnost na\u0161ich v\u00fdsledk\u016f odhadli metodu SCM pomoc\u00ed nikoliv \u00farovn\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 na ro\u010dn\u00edch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ro\u010dn\u00ed zm\u011bny sez\u00f3nn\u00ed faktory odstra\u0148uj\u00ed. Na\u0161e z\u00e1v\u011bry z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v platnosti i p\u0159i pou\u017eit\u00ed t\u00e9to transformace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            1. Z\u00e1v\u011bry<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              Na z\u00e1klad\u011b pou\u017eit\u00e9 metody m\u016f\u017eeme ud\u011blat z\u00e1v\u011br, \u017ee na Ostravsku se po roce 2012 situace u PM2.5<\/sub> a PM10<\/sub> ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zbytkem \u010cR nezlep\u0161ila (v relativn\u00edm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e naopak). Intervence tedy nebyla \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1, resp. byla relativn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 ne\u017e intervence v jin\u00fdch regionech. Z tohoto pohledu je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9 u\u010dinit z\u00e1v\u011br, \u017ee nem\u011bla-li intervence vliv na zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, pak ani nemohla ovlivnit zdravotn\u00ed stav obyvatelstva ve zkouman\u00e9m regionu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm jsme metodu synthetic control method pou\u017eili, m\u00e1 v\u0161ak sv\u00e1 \u00faskal\u00ed. Jde zejm\u00e9na o to, \u017ee intenzita podpory se zvy\u0161ovala s bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se koncem obdob\u00ed. Proto je vhodn\u00e9, zopakovat anal\u00fdzu je\u0161t\u011b jednou v dob\u011b, kdy budou k dispozici i data za roky 2014 a\u017e 2016. Zejm\u00e9na pak za obdob\u00ed, kdy ji\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 podpora z OP \u017dP nebyla vypl\u00e1cena a v\u0161echny investi\u010dn\u00ed projekty budou ve sv\u00e9 realiza\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1zi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Tento p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek vznikl d\u00edky podpo\u0159e projektu \u010d. TD020224, financovan\u00e9ho Technologickou agenturou \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky z programu Omega, realizovan\u00e9ho na Kated\u0159e managementu V\u0160E v Praze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Zdroje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [1]        ABADIE, A., DIAMOND, A., HAINMUELLER, J. (2015) Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method, American Journal of Political Science<\/em>, 59(2),495-510<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [2]        ABADIE, A., GARDEAZABAL, J. (2003) The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country, American Economic Review<\/em> 93(1), 113-132.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [3]        ABADIE A., DIAMOND, A., HAINMUELLER, J. (2010) Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California\u2019s Tobacco Control Program, Journal of the American Statistical Association<\/em> 105(490), 493-505.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [4]        ABRAMOVSKY, L., BATTISTIN, E., FITZSIMONS, E., GOODMAN, A., SIMPSON, H. (2011) Providing Employers with Incentives to Train Low-Skilled Workers: Evidence from the UK Employer Training Pilots, Journal of Labour Economics<\/em>, 29(1), 153-193, DOI: 10.1086\/656372<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [5]        ALECKE, B., REINKOWSKI, J., MITZE, T., UNTIEDT, G. (2012) Does firm size make a difference?: analysing the effectiveness of R&D subsidies inEast Germany, German Economic Review<\/em>, 13(2), 174-195, DOI: 10.1111\/j.1468-0475.2011.00546.x<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [6]        ALMER, C., WINKLER R. (2012) The Effect of Kyoto Emission Targets on Domestic CO2 Emissions: A Synthetic Control Approach. Working paper, , [cit 2013-09-08],Dostupn\u00fd tak\u00e9 z: http:\/\/www.cer.ethz.ch\/auroe\/tagu
              ngen\/auroe2012_winkler.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [7]        ARRAZ, M., C., MUNOZ MORENO, M. F., MEDINA, A. A., CAPIT\u00c1N, M. A., VAQUER, F. C., G\u00d3MEZ, A. A., (2014) Health impact assessment of air pollution in Valladolid, Spain, BMJ Open<\/em>, 4, 1-11<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [8]        ASVAPP (2012) Counterfactual impact of cohesion policy: impact and cost-effectiveness of investment subsidies in Italy, [cit 2013-03-08]. Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/regional_policy\/information\/evaluations\/impact_evaluation_en.cfm#1<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [9]        BATTISTIN, E. & RETTORE, E. (2002) Testing for Programme Effects in a Regression Discontinuity Design with Imperfect Compliance, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society<\/em>. Series A (Statistics in Society), 165(1), 39-57<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [10]      BONDONIO, D., ENGBERG, J. (2000) Enterprise zones and local employment: evidence from the states’ programs, Regional science & urban economics<\/em>, 30(5), 519-549<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [11]      CZARNITZKI, D., BENTO, C. L., DOHERR, T. (2011) Counterfactual impact evaluation of cohesion policy: Examples from Support to Innovation and Research, [cit 2013-06-08]. Dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/regional
              _policy\/information\/evaluations\/pdf\/impact\/ciewp2_final.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [12]      DEGRAVEL, D. (2011) Internships and Small Business: A fruitful Union? A Conceptual Approach, Journal of Management Policy and Practice<\/em>, 12(2), 27<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [13]      ESPOSITO, S., GALEONE, C., LELII, M., LONGI, B., ASCOLESE, B., SENATORE, L., PRADA, E., MONTINARO, V., MALERBA, S., PATRIA, M. F., PRINCIPI, N. (2014) Impact of air pollution on respir\u00e1tory diseases in children with recurrent wheezing or asthma, BMC Pulmonary Medicine<\/em>, 14(130), 1-9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [14]      GARSHICK, E. (2014) Effects of short- and long-term exposures to ambient air pollution on COPD, European Respiration Journal<\/em>, 44, 558-561<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [15]      GAULT, J, LEACH, E., DUEY, M. (2010) Effects of business internships on job marketability: the employers\u00b4 perspective, Education + Training, 52(1), 76 \u2013 88<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [16]      HAMERSMA, S. (2008) The Effects of an Employer Subsidy on Employment Outcomes: A Study of the Work Opportunity and Welfare-to Work Tax Credits, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 27(3), 498-520<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [17]      LAGRAVINESE, R., MOSCONE, F., TOSETTI, E., LEE, H. (2014) The impact of air pollution on hospital admissions: Evidence from Italy, Regional Science and Urban Economics<\/em>, 49, 278-285<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [18]      LECHNER, M., MIQUEL, R., WUNSCH, C. (2011) Long-run effects of public sector sponsored training in West Germany, Journal of the European Economic Association<\/em>, 9(4), 742-784<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [19]      Ministerstvo \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed (2012) Opera\u010dn\u00ed program \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed, [cit 2013-06-08],Dostupn\u00fd tak\u00e9 z: http:\/\/www.strukturalni-fondy.cz
              \/getmedia\/d72d3a37-b57f-4883-9ab5-e2f5dbe67d5d\/Programovy-dokume
              nt-OP-Zivotni-prostredi-na-programove-obdobi-2007%E2%80%932013.pdf
              ?ext=.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [20]      RAUN, L. H., ENSOR, K. B., PERSSE, D. (2014) Using community level strategies to reduce asthma attacks triggered by outdoor air pollution: a case crossover analysis, Environmental Health<\/em>, 13(58), 1-14<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [21]      YORIFUJI, T., SUZUKI, E., KASHIMA, S. (2014) Hourly differences in air pollution and risk of respir\u00e1tory dinase in the elderly: a time-stratified case-crossover study, Environmental Health<\/em>, 13(67): 2-11<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [22]      WHITE, H. (2011) An introduction to the use of randomized kontrol trials to evaluace development interventions, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Working paper 9<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [23]      WILKER, E. H., LJUNGMAN, P. L., RICE, M. B., KLOOG, I., SCHWARTZ, J., GOLD, D. R., KUTRAKIS, P., VITA, J. A., MITCHELL, G. F., VASAN, R. S., BENJAMIN, E. J., HAMBURG, N. M., MITTLEMAN, M. A., (2014) Relation of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution to Brachial Artery Flow-Mediated Dilation and Reactive Hyperemia, The American Journal of Cardiology<\/em>, 113(12), 2057-2063<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              [24]      WUNSCH, C., LECHNER, M. (2008) What Did All the Money Do? On the General Ineffectiveness of Recent West German Labour Market Programmes, Kyklos<\/em>, 61(1), 134-174<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              [1]<\/a> P\u0159\u00edkladem je studie o tom, jak by se vyv\u00edjelo hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed N\u011bmeck\u00e9 spolkov\u00e9 republiky, pokud by nedo\u0161lo ke sjednocen\u00ed (Abadie, 2015).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Air pollution is proven to adversely affect human health. For this reason, public authorities intervene to decrease air pollution. In the Czech Republic, an example of such an intervention is the Operational Programme Environment. This article asks whether the investments under the priority axis 2 of this programme have led to a decrease in air pollution in the Ostrava region.<\/p>\n

              The synthetic control method is used to estimate the impacts of the intervention. This method is based on an artificially created comparison group for the evaluated region. The impact of the intervention on air pollution after the year 2012 is estimated on the monthly data of average concentrations of pollutants PM2.5 and PM10.<\/p>\n

              The results show that this investment has not led to a significant reduction in pollutant concentrations. The caveat is that time series is still too short and the reduction of air pollution due to impacts of the Operational Programme Environment may be identified in future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1447"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1450,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1447\/revisions\/1450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}