{"id":1482,"date":"2023-08-30T17:23:23","date_gmt":"2023-08-30T15:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/uncategorized\/plneni-ambicioznich-cilu-po-kapkach-evaluace-dopadu-environmentalnich-investic-na-kvalitu-vod\/"},"modified":"2023-09-18T09:18:04","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T07:18:04","slug":"the-implementation-of-ambitious-targets-drop-by-drop-evaluation-of-impact-of-environmental-investments-on-water-quality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/articles\/the-implementation-of-ambitious-targets-drop-by-drop-evaluation-of-impact-of-environmental-investments-on-water-quality\/","title":{"rendered":"The Implementation of Ambitious Targets Drop by Drop: Evaluation of Impact of Environmental Investments on\u00a0Water Quality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Implementation of Ambitious Targets Drop by Drop: Evaluation of Impact of Environmental Investments on&nbsp;Water Quality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abstrakt<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vod ovliv\u0148uje nejen celkovou kvalitu vodn\u00edch ekosyst\u00e9m\u016f a&nbsp;n\u00e1klady v\u00fdroby pitn\u00e9 vody, ale i volno\u010dasov\u00e9 aktivity. \u010cesk\u00e1 republika se zav\u00e1zala v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm desetilet\u00ed napl\u0148ovat evropsk\u00e9 politiky v oblasti \u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed odpadn\u00edch vod ze&nbsp;s\u00eddel a zaji\u0161\u0165ovat ur\u010ditou kvalitu (stav) v\u0161ech vodn\u00edch \u00fatvar\u016f (viz R\u00e1mcov\u00e1 sm\u011brnice vodn\u00ed politiky \u010d. 2000\/60\/ES). Proto se Opera\u010dn\u00ed program \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed v\u011bnuje ve sv\u00e9 prvn\u00ed prioritn\u00ed ose zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktury, zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdstavb\u011b a rekonstrukc\u00edm \u010dist\u00edren odpadn\u00edch vod a kanalizac\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zde prezentovan\u00fd v\u00fdzkum se zam\u011b\u0159uje na ot\u00e1zku, zda do\u0161lo ke skute\u010dn\u00e9mu zlep\u0161en\u00ed kvality vod d\u00edky investic\u00edm do v\u00fdstavby \u010dist\u00edren odpadn\u00edch vod. Anal\u00fdza je provedena na datech z monitorovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed 2007\u20132013 a na datech o zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed celkov\u00fdm fosforem a fosfore\u010dnany, m\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm Povod\u00edm Vltavy, s.p. za&nbsp;roky 2007\u20132014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Statistick\u00e9 testov\u00e1n\u00ed dopad\u016f environment\u00e1ln\u00edch investic potvrzuje, \u017ee&nbsp;investi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje na v\u00fdstavbu, renovaci a roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dist\u00edren odpadn\u00edch vod v povod\u00ed Vltavy maj\u00ed pozitivn\u00ed vliv na kvalitu vod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Water pollution not only affects leisure activities, but also the cost of&nbsp;production of drinking water quality and the overall quality of aquatic ecosystems. The Czech Republic has pledged to meet European policy on&nbsp;treatment of wastewater from settlements and ensure a certain quality of all water bodies in the next decade (see Water Framework Directive no.&nbsp;2000\/60 \/ EC). Therefore, the Operational Programme Environment devotes its first priority axis to improving water infrastructure, particularly the construction and reconstruction of wastewater treatment plants and&nbsp;sewerage systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The research presented here focuses on whether there has been real improvement in water quality due to investments in the construction of&nbsp;wastewater treatment plants. The analysis is performed on data from&nbsp;the monitoring system of the Operational Programme Environment 2007\u20132013 and data on phosphorus pollution and phosphorus phosphate measured by the Vltava River, Inc. for the years 2007\u20132014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Statistical tests estimate the impact of environmental investments confirms that spending on construction, renovation and expansion of sewage treatment plants in the Vltava River basin have a positive effect on&nbsp;water quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 slova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Evaluace dopadu, voda, fosfor, zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u010dist\u00edrna odpadn\u00edch vod<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Keywords<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Impact evaluation, water, phosphorus, pollution, wastewater treatment plant<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u00davod<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voda je nezbytn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edm zdrojem pro p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed. Jej\u00ed \u010distotu a kvalitu v\u0161ak v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje lidsk\u00e1 \u010dinnost. V\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi bodov\u00fdmi zdroji zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed jsou odpadn\u00ed vody z lidsk\u00fdch s\u00eddel zat\u011b\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed vodn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed nadm\u011brn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edsunem \u017eivin (zejm\u00e9na fosforem a dus\u00edkem). Kvalita \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed se v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice za posledn\u00edch 25 let v\u00fdrazn\u011b zlep\u0161ila a&nbsp;p\u0159es 97 % odpadn\u00edch vod vypou\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch do kanalizace je \u010di\u0161t\u011bno (CENIA, 2013). P\u0159esto v\u00fdvoj hodnot koncentrac\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch vod fosforem a jeho slou\u010deninami ukazuje, \u017ee mezi roky 2010 a 2012 do\u0161lo k jeho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b koncentrac\u00ed N-NO3- ve vodn\u00edch toc\u00edch \u010cR osciluj\u00ed hodnoty zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed kolem hodnoty roku 2003 a nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed tedy k jejich v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed (CENIA, 2013: 61). Zpr\u00e1va (CENIA, 2013: 62) z\u00e1rove\u0148 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje v\u00fdznam bodov\u00e9ho zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a tedy i v\u00fdznam \u010dist\u00edren odpadn\u00edch vod (\u010cOV) jako n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159isp\u011bt k dal\u0161\u00edmu sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed koncentrac\u00ed t\u00e9to zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed l\u00e1tky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Na evropsk\u00e9 \u00farovni je napl\u0148ov\u00e1n dlouhodob\u00fd c\u00edl v podob\u011b vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed kanaliza\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b a \u010dist\u00edren odpadn\u00edch vod. Nyn\u00ed vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, zda do\u0161lo ke skute\u010dn\u00e9mu zlep\u0161en\u00ed situace a sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. D\u00edky hodnocen\u00ed ex-ante lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v\u00fdsledk\u016f bude dosa\u017eeno za rozumnou cenu, nicm\u00e9n\u011b ex-post hodnocen\u00ed v podob\u011b hodnocen\u00ed dopad\u016f program\u016f rigor\u00f3zn\u00edmi metodami nen\u00ed obvykl\u00e9, aby tyto z\u00e1v\u011bry potvrdilo \u010di vyvr\u00e1tilo. Evropsk\u00e1 komise proto vyj\u00e1d\u0159ila po\u017eadavek prov\u00e1d\u011bt dopadov\u00e9 evaluace v evropsk\u00fdch politik\u00e1ch. Pro oblast podpor Evropsk\u00fdch struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch a&nbsp;investi\u010dn\u00edch fond\u016f (ESIF), kter\u00e9 jsou v centru na\u0161eho v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu, je v Na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed \u010d. 1303\/2013 o spole\u010dn\u00fdch ustanoven\u00edch zejm\u00e9na \u010cl\u00e1nek 57, kter\u00fd po \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00edch vy\u017eaduje realizaci takov\u00fdchto hodnocen\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u00e1\u0161 p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek se zam\u011b\u0159uje pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edmto sm\u011brem. Jeho c\u00edlem je statistick\u00fdmi metodami ov\u011b\u0159it, zda investice do \u010dist\u00edren odpadn\u00edch vod vedou k signifikantn\u00edmu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch vod. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b zkoum\u00e1me obsah fosforu a jeho slou\u010denin v povrchov\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch v z\u00e1vislosti na investic\u00edch Opera\u010dn\u00edho programu \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed 2007-2013 (d\u00e1le jen OP \u017dP) v prioritn\u00ed ose 1 (Zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktury a sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed rizika povodn\u00ed) v povod\u00ed Vltavy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zku\u0161enosti s evaluacemi jako takov\u00fdmi z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010desk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 spr\u00e1va a&nbsp;evalu\u00e1to\u0159i postupn\u011b, zejm\u00e9na od dob realizace programu Phare. S n\u00e1stupem Struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch fond\u016f a roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed rozvojov\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce se v\u00edce a v\u00edce roz\u0161i\u0159uje i obecn\u00e9 pov\u011bdom\u00ed a praktick\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti s&nbsp;evaluacemi. Relativn\u011b pomal\u00e9 pronik\u00e1n\u00ed evalua\u010dn\u00edch technik jako sou\u010d\u00e1st ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch v\u00fddajov\u00fdch program\u016f v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice je patrn\u00e9 po celou dobu od p\u0159edvstupn\u00edho obdob\u00ed do dne\u0161ka (Burns a Yoo, 2002, Rado\u0161 a&nbsp;Kaufmann, 2009, Potluka, Br\u016fha a Voz\u00e1r, 2013). Nicm\u00e9n\u011b i v dal\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch nebylo obvykl\u00e9 vyhodnocovat dopady program\u016f na&nbsp;ochranu \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed (Frondel a Schmidt, 2005). S rostouc\u00edmi finan\u010dn\u00edmi probl\u00e9my n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed EU z\u00e1rove\u0148 i s\u00edl\u00ed tlak Evropsk\u00e9 komise na realizaci politik, kter\u00e9 jsou zalo\u017eeny na d\u016fkazech z\u00edskan\u00fdch z v\u011bdeck\u00fdch prac\u00ed. T\u00edm je c\u00edleno na efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zde p\u0159edstaven\u00fd v\u00fdzkum chce pomoci zacelit tuto mezeru a aplikac\u00ed statistick\u00fdch metod otestovat, jak\u00e9 byly dopady investic v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho programu na kvalitu povrchov\u00fdch vod. C\u00edlem na\u0161eho v\u00fdzkumu je zhodnocen\u00ed efektivnosti v\u00fddaj\u016f do zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed kvality \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, v\u00fddaj\u016f prioritn\u00ed osy 1 OP \u017dP v oblasti sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vod, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b investic do \u010cOV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dal\u0161\u00ed text je \u010dlen\u011bn n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem. Prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159edstavuje d\u016fvody pro evaluaci investic do \u010cOV a v\u00fdzvy s t\u00edm spojen\u00e9. Ve druh\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti diskutujeme problematiku zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch vod a d\u016fsledky, kter\u00e9 zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt. T\u0159et\u00ed kapitola popisuje pou\u017eit\u00e1 data a metody, v\u010detn\u011b jejich zdroj\u016f. \u010ctvrt\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st textu prezentuje pozitivn\u00ed dopady investic na&nbsp;kvalitu povrchov\u00fdch vod dan\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00fdmi koncentracemi fosforu. P\u00e1t\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st shrnuje hlavn\u00ed zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" start=\"2\">\n<li><strong>Problematika zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch vod<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nadm\u011brn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsun \u017eivin (fosforu a dus\u00edku) do povrchov\u00fdch vod zp\u016fsobuje probl\u00e9m eutrofizace, tj. p\u0159emno\u017een\u00ed sinic a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9ho odum\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed jin\u00fdch vodn\u00edch organism\u016f v d\u016fsledku nedostatku rozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9ho kysl\u00edku. Povrchov\u00e1 voda se st\u00e1v\u00e1 obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bji vyu\u017eitelnou jako zdroj pro v\u00fdrobu pitn\u00e9 vody a je nevhodn\u00e1 ke koup\u00e1n\u00ed. Dle \u0159ady studi\u00ed (nap\u0159. Schindler, 2006) a&nbsp;politick\u00fdch dokument\u016f je eutrofizace pova\u017eov\u00e1na za jeden z hlavn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f kvality povrchov\u00fdch vod. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00edch je t\u00edmto probl\u00e9mem zasa\u017eeno v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 % stojat\u00fdch vod (OECD, 2013), p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny tento probl\u00e9m v budoucnosti je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed (Hering et al., 2010).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u017diviny se do vody dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed ze zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch hnojiv a kanaliza\u010dn\u00edch spla\u0161k\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou do vody splachov\u00e1ny z pol\u00ed a lidsk\u00fdch s\u00eddel. Pod\u00edl jednotliv\u00fdch faktor\u016f se m\u011bn\u00ed v z\u00e1vislosti na typu \u00fazem\u00ed a soci\u00e1ln\u011b-ekonomick\u00e9 charakteristiky populace, ale velmi \u010dasto p\u0159edstavuje hlavn\u00ed faktor \u0161patn\u00fd stav infrastruktury (\u010dist\u00edrny odpadn\u00edch vod). Nap\u0159\u00edklad detailn\u00ed mapov\u00e1n\u00ed zdroj\u016f fosforu na Vodn\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ei Orl\u00edk uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee 55 % zdroje fosforu tvo\u0159ily kanaliza\u010dn\u00ed spla\u0161ky, 22 % intenz\u00edvn\u00ed chov kapr\u016f v&nbsp;rybn\u00edc\u00edch a 12 % jin\u00e9 zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 aktivity (Voj\u00e1\u010dek et al., 2014, viz tak\u00e9 Kop\u00e1\u010dek et al., 2013).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stavby kanaliza\u010dn\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed nebo \u010dist\u00edren odpadn\u00edch vod (\u010di jejich modernizace) v obc\u00edch byla propagov\u00e1na jako d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pro sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vod v evropsk\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku. Od 90. let 20. stolet\u00ed byla tato priorita vyj\u00e1d\u0159ena ve Sm\u011brnici 91\/271\/EHS o \u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed m\u011bstsk\u00fdch odpadn\u00edch vod. Sb\u011br a \u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed odpadn\u00edch vod v aglomerac\u00edch do 2000 obyvatel je pova\u017eov\u00e1no za jedin\u00fd provediteln\u00fd zp\u016fsob efektivn\u00edho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed obsahu zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e1tek ve vod\u011b, i kdy\u017e existuj\u00ed i jin\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 mohou b\u00fdt realizov\u00e1na na&nbsp;\u00farovni jednotliv\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed (septiky, individu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2.1 Opera\u010dn\u00ed program \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hodnocen\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u00edme na OP \u017dP 2007\u20132013. Tento program je zam\u011b\u0159en na&nbsp;ochranu a zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed kvality \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed v&nbsp;\u010cR (M\u017dP, 2012). Prvn\u00ed prioritn\u00ed osa tohoto programu je zam\u011b\u0159ena na zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktury a sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed rizika povodn\u00ed. C\u00edlem t\u00e9to prioritn\u00ed osy je zlep\u0161en\u00ed stavu povrchov\u00fdch a podzemn\u00edch vod, zabezpe\u010den\u00ed dod\u00e1vek zdravotn\u011b nez\u00e1vadn\u00e9 pitn\u00e9 vody pro obyvatelstvo a sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed rizika povodn\u00ed (M\u017dP, 2012: 96). Program se v oblasti povrchov\u00fdch a podzemn\u00edch vod zam\u011b\u0159uje na dva specifick\u00e9 c\u00edle, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed vypou\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9ho zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed eutrofizace povrchov\u00fdch vod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mezi podporovan\u00e9 aktivity pat\u0159\u00ed v\u00fdstavba, rekonstrukce a intenzifikace m\u011bstsk\u00fdch \u010cOV a v\u00fdstavba, rekonstrukce a dostavba stokov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f. Jde o aktivity, kter\u00e9 vedou ke sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed obsahu dus\u00edku a fosforu v povrchov\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch, co\u017e jsou zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00ed l\u00e1tky, jejich\u017e koncentrace zkoum\u00e1me v z\u00e1vislosti na tom, zda v p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 obci prob\u011bhla investice do \u010cOV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" start=\"3\">\n<li><strong>Data<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro zde prezentovan\u00fd v\u00fdzkum byla pou\u017eita data jednak z monitorovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu OP \u017dP, a tak\u00e9 od Povod\u00ed Vltavy, s.p. Data z monitorovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu OP \u017dP obsahuj\u00ed identifikaci m\u00edsta realizace projektu, kr\u00e1tk\u00fd popis aktivit projektu, identifikaci v\u00fdpust\u011b \u010cOV s jej\u00edmi sou\u0159adnicemi a v\u00fd\u0161i podpory v K\u010d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro oblast sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vod tak disponujeme informacemi o 1121 projektech za celou \u010ceskou republiku, z nich\u017e jsme vybrali projekty realizovan\u00e9 v povod\u00ed Vltavy (doba jejich realizace je uvedena v tabulce \u010d.&nbsp;1). Z\u00e1rove\u0148 tak\u00e9 disponujeme informacemi o v\u0161ech obc\u00edch v \u010cR z datab\u00e1ze CEDR III a \u010cS\u00da. Datab\u00e1ze CEDR III obsahuje informace o dotac\u00edch vypl\u00e1cen\u00fdch skrze st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky a zahrnuje i informace o&nbsp;investic\u00edch do \u010cOV, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edch\u00e1zely OP \u017dP, \u010di byly financov\u00e1ny soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s OP \u017dP, ale z jin\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1stka v oblasti zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 infrastruktury a sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed rizika povodn\u00ed \u2013 Oblast podpory 1.1 \u2013 Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vod \u010din\u00ed na projekt 60 mil. K\u010d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Povod\u00ed Vltavy, s.p. poskytlo data o kvalit\u011b povrchov\u00fdch vod, ve kter\u00fdch bylo identifikov\u00e1no, kdy a na jak\u00e9m odb\u011brn\u00e9m profilu byla hodnota zm\u011b\u0159ena. \u010cistota vody byla m\u011b\u0159ena pomoc\u00ed koncentrac\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e1tek celkov\u00fd fosfor (mg\/l) a fosfore\u010dnany (mg\/l). Data zahrnuj\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edm odb\u011brn\u00e9m profilu po proudu pod v\u00fdpust\u00ed \u010cOV obdob\u00ed od&nbsp;ledna 2007 do prosince 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"562\" height=\"260\" src=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-14.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-903\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-14.jpg 562w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-14-300x139.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-14-150x69.jpg 150w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/1-14-480x222.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:767px) 480px, 562px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Relativn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fd vzorek projekt\u016f vybran\u00fdch z celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu byl zp\u016fsoben po\u017eadavkem, aby mezi ukon\u010den\u00edm projektu (tedy uveden\u00edm \u010cOV do&nbsp;provozu) a dostupn\u00fdmi daty z monitoringu kvality vod byl minim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd odstup 6 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Zna\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed realizovan\u00fdch projekt\u016f tedy nesplnilo podm\u00ednku ukon\u010den\u00ed do \u010dervna 2014 (data monitoringu kvality byla dostupn\u00e1 pouze do prosince 2014).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" start=\"4\">\n<li><strong>V\u00fdsledky a diskuse<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>4.1 Popisn\u00e1 statistika<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Do datov\u00e9ho vzorku jsme pou\u017eili pouze odb\u011brn\u00e9 profily, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly v\u0161echna sledovan\u00e1 data k dispozici a z\u00e1rove\u0148 vzd\u00e1lenost \u010cOV od odb\u011brn\u00e9ho profilu nebyl vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 20 km. To je sice pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00e1 vzd\u00e1lenost, nicm\u00e9n\u011b zde stoj\u00ed evaluace p\u0159ed rozhodnut\u00edm, zda volit v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vzd\u00e1lenost s&nbsp;t\u00edm, \u017ee zkouman\u00fd vzorek bude v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, nebo vzd\u00e1lenost zkr\u00e1tit za&nbsp;cenu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed rozsahu vzorku. Zde jsme se p\u0159iklonili k pou\u017eit\u00ed t\u00e9to vzd\u00e1lenosti, by\u0165 jsme si v\u011bdomi toho, \u017ee data z m\u011brn\u00e9ho profilu u \u010cOV by byla nejvhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Takov\u00e1 data v\u0161ak nejsou k dispozici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Popisnou statistiku za jednotliv\u00e9 m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed \u010cOV uv\u00e1d\u00edme pro oba polutanty v tabulk\u00e1ch 2, 3 a 4.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"573\" height=\"775\" src=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2-12.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-905\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2-12.jpg 573w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2-12-222x300.jpg 222w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2-12-55x75.jpg 55w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/2-12-480x649.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:767px) 480px, 573px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"568\" height=\"832\" src=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/3-10.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-907\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/3-10.jpg 568w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/3-10-205x300.jpg 205w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/3-10-51x75.jpg 51w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/3-10-480x703.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:767px) 480px, 568px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"551\" height=\"834\" src=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/4-10.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-909\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/4-10.jpg 551w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/4-10-198x300.jpg 198w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/4-10-50x75.jpg 50w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/4-10-480x727.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:767px) 480px, 551px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V tabulce uv\u00e1d\u00edme pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 koncentrace p\u0159ed a po zprovozn\u011bn\u00ed \u010cOV, jejich procentn\u00ed zm\u011bnu a pak tot\u00e9\u017e pro jednoro\u010dn\u00ed \u010dasov\u00fd interval (tj. byla-li stanice zprovozn\u011bna v \u010dervnu 2013, pak ro\u010dn\u00ed interval p\u0159ed zprovozn\u011bn\u00edm je od kv\u011btna 2012 a\u017e do kv\u011btna 2013, kde\u017eto interval po zprovozn\u011bn\u00ed je od \u010dervna 2013 a\u017e do \u010dervna 2014).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159esnost anal\u00fdzy by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161it zahrnut\u00edm pr\u016ftok\u016f do testovan\u00fdch model\u016f. Touto informaci v\u0161ak Povod\u00ed Vltavy, s.p. nedisponuje. Validnost anal\u00fdzy t\u00edm v\u0161ak nen\u00ed ohro\u017eena. Aby tomu tak bylo, muselo by b\u00fdt v\u011bt\u0161ina \u010cOV zprovozn\u011bna v obdob\u00ed, kdy byly pr\u016ftoky v\u00fdrazn\u011b jin\u00e9, ne\u017e&nbsp;p\u0159ed&nbsp;zprovozn\u011bn\u00edm. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, muselo by zprovozn\u011bn\u00ed \u010cOV korelovat se&nbsp;zm\u011bnou pr\u016ftoku. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee je zprovoz\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed rozprost\u0159eno v&nbsp;del\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m \u00faseku, je toto nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. P\u0159i znalosti pr\u016ftok\u016f by metoda poskytla p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledky. Tuto situaci v\u0161ak nepova\u017eujeme za systematick\u00e9 zkreslen\u00ed. Abychom ov\u011b\u0159ili, zda jsou na\u0161e v\u00fdsledky robustn\u00ed, pou\u017eili jsme dva statistick\u00e9 modely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>4.2 Regresn\u00ed anal\u00fdza<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nejprve jsme provedli prostou regresn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu, kdy jsme uva\u017eovali n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed vztah:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ln (X<sub>i<\/sub><sup>post<\/sup>&nbsp;\/ X<sub>i<\/sub><sup>Pre<\/sup>&nbsp;)= \u03b1<sub>i<\/sub>&nbsp;+ \u03b2 Z<sub>i<\/sub>+ e<sub>i<\/sub>, &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (1)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">kde X<sub>i<\/sub><sup>post<\/sup>&nbsp;je pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 koncentrace pro i-tou m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00ed stanici v obdob\u00ed po&nbsp;uveden\u00ed \u010cOV do provozu a X<sub>i<\/sub><sup>pre<\/sup>&nbsp;je pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 koncentrace v obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed uveden\u00edm p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 \u010cOV do provozu, Z<sub>i<\/sub>&nbsp;jsou dodate\u010dn\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9 (jak\u00fdmi jsou vzd\u00e1lenost \u010didla od \u010cOV a po\u010det obyvatel s\u00eddla, v n\u011bm\u017e se \u010cOV nach\u00e1z\u00ed) a e<sub>i<\/sub>&nbsp;jsou n\u00e1hodn\u00e9 chyby. Symbol ln zna\u010d\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00fd logaritmus, uva\u017eujeme tedy regresi v logaritmick\u00e9m tvaru. To m\u00e1 tu v\u00fdhodu, \u017ee parametr \u03b2 lze interpretovat jako procentn\u00ed zm\u011bnu; odhad t\u00e9to rovnice n\u00e1m tak poskytne pr\u016fm\u011brnou procentn\u00ed zm\u011bnu koncentrac\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch l\u00e1tek po uveden\u00ed \u010cOV do provozu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro ob\u011b sledovan\u00e9 l\u00e1tky nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z uva\u017eovan\u00fdch dodate\u010dn\u00fdch prom\u011bnn\u00fdch signifikantn\u00ed, proto je z rovnice vylu\u010dujeme. V\u00fdsledn\u00e1 regresn\u00ed rovnice odhaduje tedy pouze parametr \u03b2, kter\u00fd ud\u00e1v\u00e1, o kolik procent klesla koncentrace zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed po zprovozn\u011bn\u00ed \u010cOV. V\u00fdsledky jsou shrnuty v&nbsp;tabulce 5:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"556\" height=\"128\" src=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/5-9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-911\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/5-9.jpg 556w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/5-9-300x69.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/5-9-150x35.jpg 150w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/5-9-480x111.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:767px) 480px, 556px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Koncentrace fosforu celkov\u00e9ho tedy v pr\u016fm\u011bru klesly o 8 %, kde\u017eto koncentrace fosfore\u010dnan\u016f klesly o 11,5 %. V\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 hodnoty jsou statisticky signifikantn\u00ed na 10% hladin\u011b. Pokud bychom pou\u017eili standardn\u011b uva\u017eovanou hladinu 5 %, pak bychom museli od tohoto z\u00e1v\u011bru ustoupit. Pokud bychom uva\u017eovali i dodate\u010dn\u00e9 regresn\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00e9 zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161e, pak se bodov\u00e9 odhady parametru \u03b2 nezm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uva\u017eovali jsme tak\u00e9 regresn\u00ed rovnici, kde X<sub>i<\/sub><sup>post<\/sup>&nbsp;a X<sub>i<\/sub><sup>pre<\/sup>&nbsp;nebyly pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 hodnoty p\u0159ed a po zprovozn\u011bn\u00ed \u010cOV, ale hodnoty medi\u00e1nov\u00e9. V\u00fdsledky jsou uvedeny v tabulce 6.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"548\" height=\"112\" src=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/6-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-913\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/6-7.jpg 548w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/6-7-300x61.jpg 300w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/6-7-150x31.jpg 150w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/6-7-480x98.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:767px) 480px, 548px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>4.3 Stavov\u00fd model<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stavov\u00e9 modely maj\u00ed \u0161irok\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed v kvantitativn\u00edm v\u00fdzkumu a byly pou\u017eity tak\u00e9 na odhady dopad\u016f opat\u0159en\u00ed politik<a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaltep.cz\/inpage\/cile-po-kapkach\/#_ftn1\">[1]<\/a>. Jako alternativn\u00ed model jsme uva\u017eovali n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed stavov\u00fd model. Vzhledem k heterogenit\u011b obsahu l\u00e1tek, vzd\u00e1lenosti odb\u011brn\u00e9ho profilu od \u010cOV a volatilit\u011b \u0159ad, uva\u017eujeme pro ka\u017edou stanici m\u011b\u0159en\u00fd efekt zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165, jin\u00fdmi slovy pro ka\u017edou \u010cOV odhadujeme jej\u00ed vlastn\u00ed efekt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stavov\u00fd model je formalizov\u00e1n n\u00e1sledovn\u011b: logaritmus m\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch koncentrac\u00ed na i-t\u00e9 stanici v obdob\u00ed t je zna\u010den X<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;a je d\u00e1n n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm vztahem:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ln (X<sub>it<\/sub>) = T<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;+ C<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;+ u<sub>it<\/sub>. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;je trendov\u00e1 slo\u017eka koncentrac\u00ed, C<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;jsou st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 fluktuace,<br>kter\u00e9 mohou odchylovat skute\u010dn\u00e9 koncentrace od trendu T<sub>it<\/sub>, a u<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;jsou n\u00e1hodn\u00e9 slo\u017eky, nap\u0159. chyby m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed a jin\u00e9 jednor\u00e1zov\u00e9 faktory, kter\u00e9 tak\u00e9 zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed odchylku m\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch koncentrac\u00ed od trendu. Na rozd\u00edl od cyklick\u00fdch fluktuac\u00ed C<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;je v\u0161ak jejich vliv pouze jednor\u00e1zov\u00fd. Stavov\u00fd model je dopln\u011bn p\u0159edpoklady o dynamice jednotliv\u00fdch slo\u017eek. Dle Harveye a&nbsp;Jaegera (1993), p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;= T<sub>it-1<\/sub>&nbsp;+ Q<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;+ \u03b3 1<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;+ u<sup>T<\/sup><sub>it<\/sub>, &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee trend je n\u00e1hodn\u00fd s driftem Q<sub>it<\/sub>, u<sup>T<\/sup><sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;jsou \u0161oky v trendu,1<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;je dummy prom\u011bnn\u00e1, kter\u00e1 nab\u00edr\u00e1 hodnoty jedna pro obdob\u00ed, kdy byla i-t\u00e1 \u010dist\u00edrna spu\u0161t\u011bna, \u03b3 je parametr, kter\u00fd n\u00e1s zaj\u00edm\u00e1 a mus\u00ed b\u00fdt odhadnut. Drift Q<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;je jin\u00e1 n\u00e1hodn\u00e1 zm\u011bna, a o cyklick\u00e9 slo\u017ece C<sub>it<\/sub>&nbsp;p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee&nbsp;se jedn\u00e1 o autoregresn\u00ed proces \u0159\u00e1du dva. Pokud bychom m\u011bli model intuitivn\u011b vysv\u011btlit, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me tedy, \u017ee&nbsp;uveden\u00ed \u010cOV do provozu permanentn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje trendovou (tj. dlouhodobou) slo\u017eku zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, a&nbsp;to o hodnotu \u03b3, co\u017e je vzhledem k logaritmick\u00e9 transformaci op\u011bt procentn\u00ed zm\u011bna dlouhodob\u00e9 (trendov\u00e9) slo\u017eky zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Je vhodn\u00e9 poznamenat, \u017ee tento model je flexibiln\u00ed v tom smyslu, \u017ee nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 konstantn\u00ed trend: trend se m\u016f\u017ee m\u011bnit z \u0159ady d\u016fvod\u016f (objeven\u00ed nov\u00e9ho zdroje zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed mezi \u010cOV a \u010didlem, autonomn\u00ed zm\u011bna nap\u0159. z d\u016fvodu zm\u011bny vyu\u017eit\u00ed p\u016fdy atd.). Nicm\u00e9n\u011b pokud je vliv \u010cOV v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vzhledem k t\u011bmto jin\u00fdm faktor\u016fm, m\u011bl by b\u00fdt identifikovateln\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Odhad trendov\u00e9 a cyklick\u00e9 slo\u017eky je mo\u017en\u00e9 prov\u00e9st na z\u00e1klad\u011b Kalmanova filtru (Harvey, 1990) a parametry modelu je mo\u017en\u00e9 odhadnout bu\u010f metodou maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011brohodnosti, nebo na z\u00e1klad\u011b metody minimalizace predik\u010dn\u00ed chyby (Ljung a Sodertrom, 1983). Zvolili jsme ob\u011b varianty, kter\u00e9 pro&nbsp;v\u011bt\u0161inu m\u011b\u0159\u00edc\u00edch stanic poskytly velmi podobn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tento model jsme odhadli pro ka\u017edou \u010cOV v na\u0161\u00ed datab\u00e1zi zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165, ale jen tam, kde byl dostate\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed a vzd\u00e1lenost odm\u011brn\u00e9ho profilu od \u010cOV byla men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 20 km. M\u016f\u017eeme tedy na rozd\u00edl od p\u0159\u00edstupu v\u00fd\u0161e, kter\u00fd p\u0159inesl jenom pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky za v\u0161echny stanice, zkoumat efekt jednotliv\u00fdch \u010cOV. V\u00fdsledky pro \u010cOV, kde m\u00e1me dostate\u010dn\u011b pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed, jsou uvedeny v tabulce 7.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"569\" height=\"813\" src=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/7-7.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-915\" srcset=\"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/7-7.jpg 569w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/7-7-210x300.jpg 210w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/7-7-52x75.jpg 52w, https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/7-7-480x686.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:767px) 480px, 569px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee r\u016fzn\u00e9 \u010cOV maj\u00ed velice r\u016fzn\u00fd dopad na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed koncentrace l\u00e1tek. U n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010cOV jsme zaznamenali pokles o cca 1 %, kde\u017eto u jin\u00fdch \u010cOV se jedn\u00e1 \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b o des\u00edtky procent. Zkoumali jsme, pro\u010d tomu tak je. V\u00fdznamn\u00fdm faktorem, kter\u00fd jsme identifikovali, je vzd\u00e1lenost odm\u011brn\u00e9ho profilu od \u010cOV: \u010c\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed je tato vzd\u00e1lenost, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed je obvykle m\u011b\u0159en\u00fd pokles l\u00e1tek, co\u017e je vcelku p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dateln\u00fd v\u00fdsledek. V\u00fdsledky anal\u00fdzy ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed vlivy v plo\u0161e povod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je v podstat\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e9 podchytit, jako nap\u0159. splachy hnojiv z&nbsp;pol\u00ed nebo existuj\u00edc\u00ed voln\u00e9 v\u00fdpusti odpadn\u00edch vod v sousedn\u00edch obc\u00edch apod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159epo\u010dten\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky podle velikosti s\u00eddel tak\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed na \u00faspory z rozsahu, kdy mezn\u00ed n\u00e1klady na dosa\u017een\u00ed stejn\u00e9ho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed pro v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed s\u00eddla (vzhledem k rozsahu \u010dl\u00e1nku zde tyto p\u0159epo\u010dty neuv\u00e1d\u00edme, ale na vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed je poskytneme, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b si je m\u016f\u017ee laskav\u00fd \u010dten\u00e1\u0159 dopo\u010d\u00edtat s\u00e1m pomoc\u00ed odhad\u016f dopad\u016f a velikosti obc\u00ed).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" start=\"5\">\n<li><strong>Z\u00e1v\u011bry<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zde p\u0159edstaven\u00fd evalua\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdzkum je p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvkem k v\u00fdvoji, kter\u00fd prob\u00edh\u00e1 ve ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch politik\u00e1ch a zejm\u00e9na Politice soudr\u017enosti EU. Dopadov\u00e9 evaluace se roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00ed oblasti, kde d\u0159\u00edve nebyly tak \u010dast\u00e9, v\u010detn\u011b oblasti ochrany \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V\u00fdsledky na\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy potvrzuj\u00ed, \u017ee investice do \u010dist\u00edren odpadn\u00edch vod maj\u00ed pozitivn\u00ed vliv na kvalitu vody. V p\u0159edstaven\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku bylo prok\u00e1z\u00e1no sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed fosforem a fosfore\u010dnany v povod\u00ed Vltavy na&nbsp;p\u0159\u00edkladu \u010dty\u0159 des\u00edtek \u010cOV, pro kter\u00e9 byly k dispozici informace o proveden\u00e9 investici a v\u00fdvoji zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed zne\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed bylo dosa\u017eeno ve&nbsp;v\u0161ech zkouman\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00edm, \u017ee se v\u00fdsledky pro jednotliv\u00e9 \u010cOV li\u0161ily v \u0159\u00e1du des\u00edtek procent a&nbsp;\u010didla byla um\u00edst\u011bna od jednoho do sedmn\u00e1cti kilometr\u016f od \u010cOV, je vhodn\u00e9 p\u0159i p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed podobn\u00e9 evaluaci prov\u00e9st m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed odb\u011bry vzork\u016f vod v&nbsp;\u0159\u00e1du n\u011bkolika set metr\u016f nad v\u00fdpust\u00ed i pod v\u00fdpust\u00ed \u010cOV, a to p\u0159ed i po realizaci projektu a spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u010cOV do provozu. \u010casov\u00e9 harmonogramy projekt\u016f toto umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed, proto\u017ee jen samotn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edprava a realizace v\u00fdb\u011brov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na dodavatele stavby \u010cOV poskytuje dostate\u010dnou \u010dasovou rezervu pro n\u00e1b\u011bry vzork\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tento p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek vznikl d\u00edky podpo\u0159e projektu \u010d. TD020224, financovan\u00e9ho Technologickou agenturou \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky z programu Omega, realizovan\u00e9ho na Kated\u0159e managementu V\u0160E v Praze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Seznam pou\u017eit\u00e9 literatury<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[1]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; CENIA. Zpr\u00e1va o \u017eivotn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky. 2013 [cit 08\/09\/2015] dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/www1.cenia.cz\/www\/sites\/default\/files\/Zprava%20o%20zivotnim%20prostredi%20CR%202013_141112.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[2]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; BURNS, A., YOO, K. Improving the Efficiency and Sustainability of Public Expenditure in the Czech Republic. OECD Economics Department Working Papers. 2002. No. 328, OECD Publishing. http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1787\/085803311247<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[3]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; FRONDEL, M., SCHMIDT, C. M. Evaluating environmental programs: The perspective of modern evaluation research. Ecological Economics. (2005, 55, s. 515\u2013526<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[4]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; HARVEY, A. C. The effects of seat belt legislation on British road casualities: A case study in structural modelling., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1986, Series A 149 (1986), s. 187-227.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[5]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; HARVEY, A. C. Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge Books, 1990 Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[6]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; HARVEY, A. C., JAEGER, A. Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle, Journal of Applied Econometrics. 1993, 8(3), s. 231-247<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[7]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; HERING, D., HAIDEKKER, A., SCHMIDT-KLOIBER, A., BARKER, T., BUISSON, L., GRAF, W. et al. Monitoring the responses of freshwater ecosystems to climate change. Climate Change Impacts on freshwater ecosystems (eds M. Kernan, R. Battarbee &amp; B. Moss), 2010, s. 84\u2013118. Blackwell, Oxford.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[8]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; KOPACEK, J., HEJZLAR, J., POSCH, M. Factors controlling the export of&nbsp;nitrogen from agricultural land in a large central European catchment during 1900\u20132010. Environmental Science and Technology. 2013, 47(12): s.&nbsp;6400-6407. DOI: 10.1021\/es400181m<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[9]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; LJUNG L., SODERSTROM T. Theory and Practise of Recursive Identification. MIT Press. 1983<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[10]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; M\u017dP. Opera\u010dn\u00ed program \u017divotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed: Programov\u00fd dokument OP \u017dP pro obdob\u00ed 2007\u20132013. 2012, [cit 08\/09\/2015] dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/www<br>.strukturalni-fondy.cz\/getmedia\/d72d3a37-b57f-4883-9ab5-e2f5dbe67d5d\/Programovy-dokument-OP-Zivotni-prostredi-na-programove-obdobi-2007%E2%80%932013.pdf?ext=.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[11]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; OECD. Water and Climate Change Adaptation. OECD Publishing, Paris. 2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[12]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; POTLUKA, O., BR\u016eHA, J., VOZ\u00c1R, O. Counterfactual Impact Evaluation: Novinka z Bruselu? Region\u00e1ln\u00ed studia, 2013, \u010d. 2, s. 24\u201328<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[13]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; RADO\u0160, J., KAUFMANN, M. Evaluation in Czech Republic: Brief overview of evaluation process of EU Cohesion Policy funds, IN: Bienias, S., Lewandowska, I. (eds.), Evaluation Systems in the Visegrad Member States, Ministry of Regional Development. 2009, ISBN 978-83-7610-146-0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[14]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; SCHINDLER, D. W. Recent advances in the understanding and management of eutrophication. Limnology and Oceanography. 2006, 51, s.&nbsp;356\u2013363.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[15]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; SKJAERSETH, J. B. Exploring the consequences of soft law and hard law: implementing international nutrient commitments in Norwegian agriculture. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics. 2010 10(1): s. 1-14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[16]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; VOJ\u00c1\u010cEK, O., HEJZLAR, J., SLAV\u00cdKOV\u00c1, L., MACHA\u010c, J., SMEJKAL, T., CUDL\u00cdNOV\u00c1, E. Cost-effectiveness analysis report for the Vltava catchment, Czech Republic, including analysis of disproportionality. REFRESH project report. 2014 [cit 06\/12\/2014] dostupn\u00e9 z: http:\/\/www.ieep.cz\/download\/publikace\/cea_orlik.pdf &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evaltep.cz\/inpage\/cile-po-kapkach\/#_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>&nbsp;Viz nap\u0159. Harvey, 1986, kter\u00fd pomoc\u00ed stavov\u00fdch model\u016f zkoum\u00e1 vliv legislativn\u00edho na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch p\u00e1s\u016f v&nbsp;autech na po\u010det \u00famrt\u00ed v&nbsp;dopravn\u00edch nehod\u00e1ch<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Water pollution not only affects leisure activities, but also the cost of production of drinking water quality and the overall quality of aquatic ecosystems. The Czech Republic has pledged to meet European policy on treatment of wastewater from settlements and ensure a certain quality of all water bodies in the next decade (see Water Framework Directive no. 2000\/60 \/ EC). Therefore, the Operational Programme Environment devotes its first priority axis to improving water infrastructure, particularly the construction and reconstruction of wastewater treatment plants and sewerage systems.<\/p>\n<p>The research presented here focuses on whether there has been real improvement in water quality due to investments in the construction of wastewater treatment plants. The analysis is performed on data from the monitoring system of the Operational Programme Environment 2007\u20132013 and data on phosphorus pollution and phosphorus phosphate measured by the Vltava River, Inc. for the years 2007\u20132014.<\/p>\n<p>Statistical tests estimate the impact of environmental investments confirms that spending on construction, renovation and expansion of sewage treatment plants in the Vltava River basin have a positive effect on water quality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1482"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1482\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1484,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1482\/revisions\/1484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/evaltep.xcreative.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}